How will the Wings fare in 2025?
The Dallas Wings will open the 2025 WNBA season at home Friday against the Minnesota Lynx. After successfully completing the most important offseason in franchise history, Dallas will set the foundation for the future of what they hope to be a perennial championship contender.
The last few months have seen the organization undergo a whirlwind of change at almost every level. It started with the hiring of veteran executive and coach Curt Miller to take over general manager duties from owner and President Greg Bibb. From there, incumbent head coach Latricia Trammell was replaced with USC assistant Chris Koclanes. Shortly after, superstar forward Satou Sabally was traded to the Phoenix Mercury in a massive four-team, 13-player deal. Through this move and others, Dallas completely re-tooled their roster; only three players are returning from 2024.
But the most pivotal moment of the offseason (and arguably in the history of the franchise) occurred on April 14th, when the Wings selected guard Paige Bueckers first overall in the 2025 WNBA draft. Bueckers, a generational prospect, instantly transformed the present and future outlook for Dallas, fast-tracking their rebuild and giving them a franchise player to build around for years to come.
Now, the Wings must take the first step toward crafting a contender around Bueckers and superstar guard Arike Ogunbowale. While it would be nice to see Dallas make a serious playoff run in 2025, that’s not likely to happen. This year is all about setting the tone, evaluating players, and establishing an identity. As the Wings embark on a new era, here are three big questions to think about throughout this season.
How will Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale fit together?
Since Dallas won the draft lottery, one of the main talking points in the Wings space has been the potential pairing of Bueckers and Ogunbowale in the backcourt. Ogunbowale has been the first (and often second and third) option for Dallas since she was drafted in 2019, and many have wondered how she would accommodate playing next to a superstar talent at the point guard position for the first time. While Ogunbowale is an undeniably brilliant scorer, she is often criticized for her inefficiency and propensity for taking difficult shots. Can she simplify her shot diet and look to become a more effective off-ball player?
I think the answer is yes. For the last six years, Ogunbowale has been the sole offensive creator for Dallas. Satou Sabally helped when she was available, but she missed over half of the possible games during her time in Dallas, and as good as her playmaking is at the forward spot, she isn’t a primary creator. Here is the list of point guards Arike Ogunbowale has played next to in her career:
- Moriah Jefferson (hurt often, not productive)
- Ty Harris (before she was good in Connecticut)
- Veronica Burton
- Crystal Dangerfield
- Odyssey Sims
- Sevgi Uzun
You look at these backcourt partners and it’s no wonder Ogunbowale was asked to self-create so often. She’s never had anything close to a player like Paige Bueckers alongside her, and they’re about to make each other’s lives so much easier.
The beauty of the Bueckers/Ogunbowale fit is that both players can excel on and off the ball. Ogunbowale has been tasked with so much on-ball creation responsibility that many may not realize how effective she can be as an off-ball menace. Her career 35% three-point percentage seems a bit pedestrian, but she takes a ton (7.3 per game for her career) and many of those looks are off-the-dribble pull-ups with a high degree of difficulty. Per Synergy Sports, Ogunbowale shot 39% on catch-and-shoot jumpers last year, but these were just 18.9% of her field goal attempts; just 47.3% of her total shot attempts were assisted. When asked about playing alongside Bueckers, Ogunbowale asserted she’s “always been an off-ball type of player,” indicating that she is willing and able to embrace that role. The numbers back that up.
Of course, Ogunbowale will still get plenty of on-ball reps, as Paige Bueckers is one of the most effective off-ball movers we’ve ever seen at the collegiate level. Bueckers will provide incredible spacing and gravity when Ogunbowale is running primary action. Most of Bueckers’ three-point attempts in college were of the catch-and-shoot variety, and she was ultra-efficient on those shots at 42% last season. Bueckers also posted a blistering 1.51 points per possession on cuts during this time, demonstrating the complete off-ball package. (All numbers here via Synergy Sports).
I have two small concerns about the “Parike” fit. The first is that neither player gets to the rim all that much (<10% rim rate for Arike, 21% for Paige, per Synergy), and while Bueckers is an elite finisher, Ogunbowale is anything but. The best way to create advantages in the WNBA is to collapse the defense in the paint on drives, but both Bueckers and Ogunbowale prefer to settle for jumpers. Both players are incredible mid-range scorers, so that mitigates the issue a bit, and Ogunbowale is great at getting to the line and making free throws. It’s just something to keep an eye on as a potential area of improvement as the two get used to playing together.
Secondly, I worry a bit about coach Koclanes’ willingness to give Bueckers the keys to the offense and let her run a bunch of primary action. Bueckers is such an effective cutter, screener, and off-ball scorer, but the Wings will need her running plenty of high pick-and-roll to create advantages. After all, Bueckers is one of the most efficient pick-and-roll ball handlers we’ve ever seen. (1.11 PPP last season, per Synergy). As great as a free-flowing, Golden State Warriors style offense can be, the Wings need to let Paige cook. She should get the lion’s share of the on-ball reps.
Will Dallas be able to guard anyone?
2024 was an absolute horror show for the Wings on the defensive end. It was the worst WNBA defense I’ve ever watched, and the numbers back up the eye test. Last year, Dallas finished the season with a 111.7 defensive rating, the worst mark in the league by over four points and one of the worst defensive ratings in WNBA history. So, there’s nowhere to go but up in 2025, right?
Thankfully, Dallas made moves in the offseason to improve defensively. Latricia Trammell was fired, as the “defensive minded” coach failed to implement a system yielding results. Her replacement in Koclanes is the former “defensive coordinator” for some very good Connecticut Sun teams and will hopefully provide a fresh perspective on that end.
On the roster side, Dallas brought in First Team All-Defensive guard DiJonai Carrington to help shore up their perimeter defense. Carrington is widely considered one of, if not the best, point-of-attack defenders in the league. She is likely the best defender the Wings have ever employed. Adding veteran forward Myisha Hines-Allen will also help, as she is an effective post defender with some mobility.
Unfortunately, apart from those two additions, the rest of the roster doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Teaira McCowan, last year’s starting center, is not a good defender and was the anchor of last year’s horrible unit. So much of defense is predicated on good rim protection and the bigs’ ability to defend ball screens, and McCowan struggles mightily in both areas. The other big offseason addition, NaLyssa Smith, fell out of favor in Indiana because of her poor defensive performance— Indiana’s defensive rating was a whopping 11.4 points better with Smith off the floor in 2024. Promising forward Maddy Siegrist isn’t quick and gets blown by easily on the defensive end. And though Ogunbowale led the league in steals a season ago, her off-ball defense is bad, as she often gets lost in screening action.
Outside of the veteran additions and returning players, Dallas is rostering four rookies (three guards) who could struggle defensively in year one. Paige Bueckers and JJ Quinerly are great defensive players, but the adjustment to the increased skill and physicality of the W could limit them. Aziaha James is here for her scoring ability; defense is an afterthought. Luisa Geiselsoder has been a solid defensive big overseas, though it remains to be seen how she adapts to the WNBA, as well.
When you look at the composition of defensive talent on the roster, it’s hard to imagine this being anything other than a bottom-tier defense. Dallas added a few good defenders, but there are no wing stoppers or rim protection throughout the lineup. While the Wings should be able to score with the best of them, stops could be hard to come by.
How will the frontcourt rotation shake out?
This Wings roster is incredibly goofy from a positional standpoint. Half of the 12-player squad is comprised of guards. The rest of the team is rounded out by three power forwards and two centers, and Kaila Charles. There really isn’t a true wing or small forward on this team.
Coach Koclanes has already been experimenting with the frontcourt rotation in training camp. In the first preseason contest against Vegas, Dallas started DiJonai Carrington, NaLyssa Smith, and Teaira McCowan alongside Bueckers and Ogunbowale in the backcourt. Against the Toyota Antelopes in game two, Koclanes switched it up, inserting Myisha Hines-Allen into the lineup in place of McCowan, sliding Smith over to the five spot. Smith hasn’t played the five much in her WNBA career, but she certainly has the size and athleticism to moonlight at the position. The question is if she will be able to commit to defensive improvement and handle the rim protecting responsibilities of a center at this level. I’m skeptical, but if Smith can play the five, the lineup against the Lopes could be an effective unit.
Hines-Allen will also play some small-ball center. Though undersized at just 6’1”, Hines-Allen is large and strong and has handled the position in the past. She offers fun dribble hand off ability, some three-point shooting, and solid defense on the block. Koclanes will no doubt try MHA in a few different roles to see what works best. Luisa Geiselsoder won’t be ready to join the team for the opener due to overseas responsibilities, but she should come over soon to offer solid defense and shooting at the five.
My biggest takeaway from the preseason is that Koclanes may not view McCowan as a surefire starter and 30-minute per-game player. McCowan’s defense is too poor, her offensive tenacity comes and goes, and she cannot space the floor. If her role is reduced, she could be more effective in spot minutes against second units, going all out with her effort in a 15–20-minute capacity.
To me, Maddy Siegrist is the best power forward on this roster. However, due to the construction of the team, she will likely begin the season coming off the bench as the backup three. While I don’t think that’s the most effective role for her, she should be able to provide a scoring punch for the second unit. DiJoani Carrington, while more of a guard, can handle the small forward spot and should be entrenched as a starter there. Bueckers can also slide over to the three in a pinch.
I think the best Dallas lineups will feature Bueckers, Ogunbowale, Carrington, Siegrist, and one of Hines-Allen, Smith, or Geiselsoder, whoever can handle the five best. It isn’t an ideal roster setup, and the coaching staff has a tall task on their hands to figure out the best possible frontcourt combinations.
Record prediction
The Wings are a much better team than last year, but their defense will be too poor to make the playoffs. I’m predicting a 17-23 record, ninth in the WNBA and just outside the postseason picture.