The Mavericks’ season is over and now Luka Dončić joins Dallas on vacation – did anyone actually “win” the shocking trade?
With the 2024-2025 NBA Season officially a wrap for the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers, the current chapter on the Luka Dončić trade is at least temporarily closed. With that in mind, we exhaled for a moment and took a look at where Nico Harrison and the organization currently stands in Part I. With two parties playing a role in the trade, it would be remiss to ignore the other side of the transaction as we assess if any party can actually come out a “winner” in the deal. In this Part II, we will take a view of things that sit closer to Dončić and his new home in LA.
The Lakers
In the immediate aftermath of the trade, the Lakers were declared the winners. While Anthony Davis is anything but a slouch, it remains difficult to argue that the Lakers acquiring a six-year-younger generational talent like Luka Dončić isn’t an almost automatic win. Beyond this, the fact Dallas received relatively little in return only helped make the trade appear to be a landslide win for LA. For comparison sake, when the New York Knicks picked up Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets, it cost them (among some players):
- Four unprotected 1st Round Picks (2025, 2027, 2029, 2031)
- One unprotected pick swap (2028)
- One top-four protected 1st Round Pick (2025)
- One 2nd Round Pick (2025)
Granted the Lakers did not have anywhere near the same assets available as the Knicks, but Dallas getting a single 1st Round Pick (2029) as part of the swap only made the trade all the more mind-boggling. The Lakers received a generational talent to work alongside, and then ultimately replace, LeBron James as a franchise cornerstone and did so without having to give up too much else in the deal.
With that being said, the Lakers don’t necessarily have the world as their oyster. As Jacob Rude of our sister site Silverscreenandroll so aptly points out, LA does not have the most favorable cap situation at the moment. They are nearly $50 million over the cap, $17 million into the luxury tax threshold, $10 million above the first apron and within shouting distance of the terrifying second apron (Please note, Jacob’s linked article dates to February 6th when it was still expected the Lakers’ trade for Mark Williams was happening; further, the salary cap will increase this Offseason. Regardless, the general picture remains that the Lakers have few picks as is, can’t really trade any of them and will likely be unable to play in Free Agency to a meaningful degree).
An in-depth discussion of the first and second aprons is enough to make your head spin and is better served elsewhere, but suffice it to say the current Collective Bargaining Agreement is intensely punitive. This is especially true for a team that broaches the first and (moreover) second apron. There are tax ramifications, restrictions on what type of trades can be made, restrictions on which picks can be traded and what exceptions are available for use. Simply put, it can get ugly very quickly and LA may need to be creative to build around Dončić. Teams that have no flexibility whatsoever can create flexibility overnight (the Knicks did this to acquire Jalen Brunson), but LA likely has some work to do. Also, the topic of Dončić’s fitness has seemingly followed him to LA, as head coach J.J. Redick suggested some players need to get themselves into championship shape. Finally, as unlikely as it may seem, there remains at least a possibility that Dončić seeks employment elsewhere. He may very well play out his current contract without signing an extension this Offseason, so that he can explore Free Agency (Miami, anyone?) next year. LA has a truly generational talent, but will have to figure out a way to improve a roster that proved to be a quick out in the first round of this year’s playoffs.
Luka Dončić
Similar to Nico Harrison in Part I, there isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said. Remember Dončić watching his tribute video with tears in his eyes when he returned to the American Airlines Center and you have all you need to know. Beyond that, there are two points that perhaps don’t get enough attention.
The financial implications for Dončić did not get as much attention as they could have since the trade. With Dallas, Dončić was eligible to sign a supermax contract worth $345 million. Following the trade, this is no longer the case, as LA does not have the right to offer a supermax. Instead, they can offer a deal totaling $229 million. That is a delta of $116 million. There are innumerable players with total contracts smaller than what Doncic lost due to the trade! This says nothing to future contracts that would build off the prior contract as well. Doncic missed out on a staggering amount of career earnings, plain and simple.
The narrative following the trade was that the Lakers would instantly be propelled to true contender status. Having gone on a tear post-trade, that narrative gained a strong foothold. It wasn’t until the Lakers were quickly dispatched in the Playoffs that attention began to focus on the team having a somewhat incomplete roster. In many ways, the current Laker roster is eerily familiar to the 2021-22 Mavericks roster that made it to the Western Conference Finals, despite not having the same level of success thus far. That team featured Dončić along with Jalen Brunson, who while not LeBron James, is now a star in his own right. It also featured a relative dearth of centers, and a handful of undrafted (or late drafted) players (including Dorian Finney-Smith, who ironically featured on both teams). Dončić’s trajectory is truly unique, as players of his caliber are virtually never traded, at least not without having input on destination. Assuming James will retire and/or see his production decline at some point within the next few years, Dončić may experience a career reset of sorts. Up to the trade, Dončić had followed a relatively typical super star trajectory where the team builds around him and then enjoys some deep Playoff runs during years five through eight (and beyond) of the stars’ career. Dončić may now have to go through that growth again. If that is the case, Harrison may not only have cost Dončić millions, but could potentially have shortened his championship window to a degree.
Bill Duffy
As Dončić’s agent, there has been a surprising lack of discussion regarding the trade’s impact on Bill Duffy. We have no idea what percentage of any player’s contract Duffy gets, but generally speaking, sports agents can expect to see between 3%-5% of a player’s overall deal. If we assume Duffy would net 4% of Dončić’s deal, and referring back to the $116 million Dončić lost without the supermax, that means Duffy could be missing out on $4.6 million dollars as a result of the trade. Duffy is a well-regarded, long-tenured agent in the NBA. Depending on which Google search you believe, he reps players including Anthony Edwards, Zion Williamson, Anfernee Simons, Chet Holmgren and many others, to say nothing of future impact players he will rep. Harrison had to be aware of the financial impact on Duffy, a key agent in the league, when he pulled the trigger on the trade. He also had to be aware of the history the Mavericks have with Duffy.
Once upon a time, Duffy was the agent of a player Mavs’ fans may be familiar with – Steve Nash. When the Mavs refused to offer Nash as robust a contract as the Phoenix Suns did in Free Agency, he walked. This resulted in a year’s long cold war between Duffy and Mark Cuban that was eventually mended in time for Draft night 2018. Back then, Duffy ended up better off financially. Come this summer, he will end up infinitely worse. Does this re-ignite a cold war between Duffy and the Mavs? Do the Mavericks get a seat at the table with Duffy-repped players? We won’t know until we know, but a covert trade in the middle of the night doesn’t feel like it would sit well with an agent that lost millions of dollars as a result.
At its worst, the trade of Luka Dončić could potentially be a disastrous loss for all parties involved. Harrison will have a difficult time salvaging his reputation. The Mavs likely have a shorter window to win. The Lakers could potentially lose Dončić, but at least will need to get working on roster improvements. Dončić lost a ton of money and may have stepped back in terms of roster and career progress. Duffy lost money and may have renewed disdain for the Mavs.
There are of course positive outcomes where everyone can win in their own right, but the initial impact of the trade may prove to have deeper ramifications that are better seen now that the Offseason has come for all parties involved.