The Clippers have plenty of star power in this area of the floor, but can the Mavericks’ X-factor do enough to turn the series?
The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers embark on the third chapter of their playoff battle Sunday, when the teams collide in Crypto.com Arena at 2:30 CT in a game that can be watched on ABC. Some of the characters have changed, but the recent history is palpable, and should set up for a stellar first round matchup.
In any series there are storylines that set the tone, and then storylines that develop in real time over the course of play. While the story for Dallas is the scorching hot play of their star-studded backcourt, the Clippers success will rest on the play of their wings — and whether or not Kawhi Leonard is truly healthy. If Leonard isn’t 100%, can Paul George lead this team past the first round? The Mavericks wings have seen vastly improved play since the trade deadline deal sent Grant Williams to the Charlotte Hornets, and brought PJ Washington to the Mavericks. But can Washington and fellow starting forward Derrick Jones Jr. be enough two-way impact to shift the series?
Dallas Mavericks
Though they may not be considered among the elite of defensive teams in the league, the turnaround the Mavericks had since the trade deadline on that end of the floor is notable. Over the first four months of the season the Mavericks were 19th in the Defensive-rating, putting up little resistance on any part of the floor. But when Nico Harrison traded for both PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford in February, that identity shifted.
Dallas’ defense, 13th in Defensive-rating since February 22, may not make opponents shake in fear. But to turn what was a poor situation into a more than serviceable front while maintaining production as a top 10 offense is why the word contender is quietly being tossed around outside Dallas.
The tandem of Washington and Jones, flanked at times by guard-wing Dante Exum, has brought length, athleticism, and versatility to Jason Kidd’s scheme. They can switch around cleaner, slow down driving lanes to the basket, while also having the size to play against bigger bodies. This trio will have their hands full with Leonard, George, and James Harden in this series. How they approach disrupting rhythm or forcing kickouts to role players may do a lot to determine the flow of the games. And how do the Mavericks counter when the Clippers’ wings feel comfortable pulling up for midrange jumpers?
On the offensive end there will be a question mark. The answer to that question might be the difference between the Mavericks advancing or heading home. Can Washington and Jones knock down open threes? Both players will certainly get their fair share of wide open looks. And in this era of the NBA playoffs, it’s often the team with role players that make opponents pay that survive and advance.
Washington shot just 33-percent on Catch-and-Shoot three opportunities this season; Jones, 35-percent. Where the Mavericks may counter is in placing Washington into a playmaking role near the free throw line, releasing the pressure off double teams on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. That action has worked well this season for Dallas, and may force the Clippers into more rotations they’d prefer to avoid, and allow the Mavericks wings and big men to using cutting lanes to the basket.
Los Angeles Clippers
When these two teams last met in the playoffs, the Clippers had a barrage of long, defensive minded forwards, all capable of guarding multiple positions and disrupting the Mavericks’ flow. And that’s before you even get to Leonard and George. The Clippers don’t have that same look now, though their versatility on defense with a corral of guards are plenty serviceable.
But it all, unsurprisingly, comes down to Kawhi. Is he healthy? Out since the end of March, Leonard missed the final weeks of the season dealing with knee inflammation. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Thursday that the Clippers have “cautious optimism” that he will be ready to play Sunday in Game 1 after receiving an injection in the knee to reduce swelling and has since responded well. But Clippers President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank addressed media Thursday as well and said the team will likely list Leonard as questionable, due to continued inflammation and the fact that he’s yet to participate in any contact activity. They will understandably be close to the vest in giving out much confirmation on his status. As of now, it’s the biggest storyline of the series.
Though he has a long history of lower body injuries, when Leonard has played this season he’s been fantastic — posting averages of 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, while shooting nearly 42-percent from three in 68 games. And Mavericks fans needn’t spend too long to remember what a healthy Leonard looks like. In their last playoff matchup he averaged 32.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.3 steals and a block while knocking down 43-percent of his three pointers. A true cyborg effort. And then his body shut down soon after in that run and the Clippers were out. So while Los Angeles has added some star-adjacent support since then, much of their success will still rest on his health.
But it would be disrespectful to not mention George, who has played in a team high 74 games this season while averaging 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists and over a steal per game all while shooting over 40-percent from three himself (on eight attempts per game!). The Mavericks wing defenders will have their work cut out for them.
Final Word
The giant asterisk for the series for now is whether Leonard is healthy, and whether he will be available for the full series. If he is healthy, the wing edge undoubtedly goes to the Clippers here. Washington is the likely X-factor for the Mavericks this series. If he can make an impact on offense and still play stout aggressive defense then Dallas should be in a good place — but the cyborg may be lurking.