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MMBets: Can Boston run it back?

October 5, 2024 by Mavs Moneyball

Boston Celtics Media Day
Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images

The prohibitive favorite to repeat as champions, who or what could stand in the way of the Celtics?

There hasn’t been a repeat champion in the NBA since 2017-18, when the Golden State Warriors won their 3rd title in a 4-year run. Many teams since have tried, and none have really gotten close to pulling it off. In fact, no team that has made the Finals since 2018 has gotten there again the following year. Long story short, winning is hard! That being said, this Boston team might have the best chance out of anyone to try and flip that script.

There is still a bit of uncertainty heading into this season for the Celtics. Kristaps Porzingis is still recovering from the complex ankle surgery he underwent after the NBA Finals. He is tentatively scheduled to be back around the start of 2025, but as Mavs fans know, that timetable is likely to be pushed back. Another complicating factor is the pending sale of the franchise by the Grousbeck family, who have owned the team since 2002. While it doesn’t appear to put a cap on their spending for now, it has been reported that the excessive spending and luxury tax has caused a rift between the family, causing the sale. With how expensive the team is and new ownership soon taking over, it seems like the window for Boston to get from one championship to multiple championships is now.

Boston Celtics (over/under 58.5 wins)

Additions: None

Drafted: Baylor Scheierman (Creighton)

Losses: None

The Celtics are the dictionary definition of “running it back” this season. No real additions or subtractions from last season’s team, although there will be some changes on the coaching staff with former assistant Charles Lee leaving to become the head man in Charlotte. Forward Baylor Scheierman is a fun player who put in his time in college, but there aren’t any real expectations for the rookie this year. In the future, he could potentially develop into a small ball 5 or big 4.

Outlook

Over the course of an 82-game regular season, the Celtics play style makes their floor awfully high. With the amount of 3 pointers that Joe Mazzula wants the team to shoot, the shooters that they have are bound to make enough to win them a couple games that they have no business winning. However, on the other side of that double-edged sword, there will be a couple games that they shoot themselves out of. But that is a sustainable formula in the regular season to stack wins.

A concern for the Celtics in the regular season could be in the injury department. As mentioned earlier, with KP’s injury having him sidelined until December at the earliest, depth in the frontcourt could get awfully thin. Al Horford is as steady as they come, but he’ll need some rest days sprinkled in throughout the season. Xavier Tillman is fine, but beyond that, you get into the Luke Kornet’s of the world. They need to keep the bigs healthy.

Prediction: Under 58.5 wins

A big factor of why I’m going under here is the potential for Boston to coast through the year coming off the title. If they’re human, which last time I checked, they are, it’s in our nature to look ahead to the future when you know that’s all that matters. For Boston, it doesn’t matter if they are the #1 seed or the #4 seed, they just want to get to the playoffs and get the 16 wins they’re after. I think this team is closer to 55 wins this year, so I’ll take the under and hope that we get some coasting from the reigning champs.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook & are subject to change

Filed Under: Mavericks

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