Just because the draft has changed due to college rules doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t use it
As of 2021, college athletes became eligible to earn money using their name, image and likeness (NIL). As a result, the number of entries in the Draft has steadily declined in recent years all the way down to just 106 in this year’s draft – the fewest number of entries in ten years. The college game has its own set of issues, but retaining quality players is suddenly not one of them.
Because of that, the NBA Draft is in a little bit of a weird place. The first round of the draft, for the most part, is going to look and feel the same as it always has. Cooper Flagg is going to be drafted by the Dallas Mavericks on June 25th, and top prospects in the future will all still be entering the draft, regardless of what type of money they’re making in college.
Where everything starts to change, now and into the future, is from the back end of the first round on through the rest of the draft. In just this 2025 class alone, guys like Yaxel Lendeborg and Labaron Philon, two site favorites here at Mavs Moneyball, each spurned what could’ve been late first round consideration for a return to college. In Yaxel’s case, the portal took him from UAB to Michigan, but Philon returned to the Crimson Tide. Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford is another one who falls into that boat, as he was generating some first round buzz before deciding to return to Auburn.
Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
That’s not to mention several other consensus second round guys who returned to college. Milos Uzan was a projected second round pick, who’s return to the Houston Cougars forced his projected replacement to transfer out before the spring semester even finished. A whole host of Florida Gators decided to return, including Alex Condon. Boogie Fland, originally an Arkansas Razorback, also pulled out of the draft and transferred to the afore mentioned Gators.
With so much talent opting out of the NBA Draft, it’s fair to wonder what the value of a late first round or second round pick might be. While yes, the talent pool has certainly lost some quantity and quality over the last few cycles, I’d argue that the second round is more important now than it ever has been. With the second apron and the new tax rules implemented by the newest CBA, cheap talent has never been of higher priority.
Just since the 2021 draft, which was the start of the NIL era in college sports, guys who have been picked with the 25th pick or later include the following:
- Quentin Grimes (25th in 2021)
- Deuce McBride (36th in 2021)
- Andrew Nembhard (31st in 2022 – brother Ryan is in the 2025 class)
- Max Christie (35th in 2022)
- GG Jackson (45th in 2023)
- Toumani Camara (52nd in 2023)
- Terrance Shannon Jr. (27th in 2024)
- Jaylen Wells (39th in 2024)
There’s a couple in every class who pop in the second round, even with less and less talent turning pro. With the 2025-26 campaign in doubt due to Kyrie Irving’s ACL tear, the organization has the chance to really let young guys develop. Even though the Mavericks only own one pick in this 2025 draft, it’d be smart for them to get back in and take some swings on guys in the middle of this draft. Good organizations seemingly always run into talent in the second round or with undrafted guys. It’s time for the Mavericks to show what they can do.*
*You might think this is me declaring “LET NICO COOK!” It is not. There are smart people in that front office. Scouts who evaluate the whole of a draft class, not just Cooper Flagg. Nico Harrison is not one of those. Let the smart people work here, Nico. It might just save your job.