It finally happened, the Dallas Mavericks move up in the NBA Lottery
The Dallas Mavericks will draft FIRST in the 2025 NBA Draft next month. Following the live NBA Lottery show on ESPN Monday evening, the NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum revealed the selections in reverse order, starting with pick 14. Dallas jumped into the top 4 when the team wasn’t called at 11.
Prior to the reveal, Dallas had just an 8.5% chance of jumping up into the top four, with just a 1.8% chance of moving into the first spot!!!
Dallas had a 77.6% chance of remaining in the 11th spot, a 13.5% chance of moving back to 12, and a 0.5% chance of moving back to 13. In the history of the draft, the Dallas Mavericks had never moved up, only stayed in the same position, or fallen. This remarkable datapoint seems incredible, given the 16 previous times the team was part of the NBA Lottery.
What happens next is anyone’s guess, but they better not do anything insane and simply draft Cooper Flagg, a generational player in his own right. Dallas would not be allowed to trade the pick until draft night if that is on the table, due to the NBA’s Stepien Rule. This rule precludes teams from trading consecutive first-round picks and the 2024 Dallas draft pick moved to the New York Knicks, finalizing the last commitment Dallas owed New York following the 2019 trade for Kristaps Porzingis.
Given the seismic trade of Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis and Max Christie, one has to assume Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison is experiencing at least some heat given how Dallas finished the season, paired with his disastrous comments to the media on various occasions. The Mavericks are also very close to the presumed first tax apron line for teams over the salary cap. Dallas is now expensive (with potential deals for Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, and PJ Washington looming) and aging.
Cooper Flagg is a set-it-and-forget-it auto draft player. He’s young, plays defense like a mad man, and is developing his offensive game.
At Mavs Moneyball, we’re going to behave as if Dallas is keeping the pick. We plan to acknowledge how the pick could be moved, but we want to write about potential new players. This is supposed to be fun and talking about prospects is fun! We’ll see what all we come up with in the coming weeks.
This is so awesome. Go Mavs!