The league’s best conference continues to deliver
The NBA Playoffs continue to deliver, buoyed by the absolute carnage that has been the Western Conference thus far. We’ve had two first round series’ go the distance, while the others each had redeeming qualities that made this first round pretty epic. No doubt for Dallas Mavericks fans, seeing this quality of hoops can only harken back to this time last year, when it was us who was getting to enjoy the ride. Anyhow, that’s neither here nor there, so let’s get into the basketball being played. If you missed it, be sure to catch our Eastern Conference semifinals preview!
Odds provided by the DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
(1) OKC Thunder vs (4) Denver Nuggets
Series winner: OKC (-700) Denver (+500)
Series spread: OKC -2.5 games (-135) Denver +2.5 games (+115)
Tyler’s pick: Thunder in 5
I have a ton of respect for Nikola Jokic, but I also understand the mountain that Denver is going to have to climb here. If you remember last year’s Western Conference Finals, the Wolves had just come off of a game 7 win in Denver, and then had to turn around and play the Mavericks in game one of the WCF just a couple days later. That is still to this day the only game one that Jason Kidd has won as the coach of the Mavericks. The moral of the story: Denver is going to be behind from the jump against a rested and ready Thunder team who, in case you forgot, is 72-14.
Series props:
- Thunder to sweep (+230)
- Thunder in 5 (+230)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the series in 3 pointers made (+500)
Lu Dort is the favorite to lead the series in 3 pointers made. My brain can’t physically comprehend that being reality, so based on principal alone, I’m looking somewhere else. Please don’t follow me here.
David’s pick: Thunder in 7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic have serious cases for being the best players in the league. They each have their own way of controlling a game and completely bending the defense to their will. Jokic has a championship to show for his greatness, and Gilgeous-Alexander is looking for one to validate himself. It truly will be a clash of titans and a chess match. I denied the Thunder’s greatness in round one, and they spurned me. But this time, I have the three-time MVP on my side. Denver will not go quietly into the night. They will push and push until the Thunder’s depth wears on them in seven games and they advance to their first conference finals since 2012.
Series props:
- Denver +2.5 games (+125)
- OKC to be winning 2-1 after 3 games (+120)
- Michael Porter Jr. to lead the series in threes made (+1100)
I think OKC will be able to jump on Denver in game one with the short turnaround, but Denver can get one of the next two. The Nuggets are going to win at least two games; that is the floor that Jokic provides. Porter Jr. has great value here if he can get healthier and hit some shots.
(6) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (7) Golden State Warriors
Series winner: Minnesota (-180) Golden State (+155)
Series spread: Minnesota -1.5 games (+115) Golden State +1.5 games (-135)
Tyler’s pick: Wolves in 6
How about the six seed having home court in a playoff series! That is the uniqueness that this Western Conference provides. Just like above, Golden State is in a horrific situational spot for game one, coming off of a seven game street fight against the Houston Rockets. Combine that with the narrative that Anthony Edwards can body bag another NBA Legend on his way to a second consecutive conference finals appearance, and that’s all the convincing I need. From a basketball standpoint, Minnesota is just so much deeper than the Warriors, and eventually that will catch up to the older Dubs here.
Series props:
- Minnesota to win game one and to win the series (-115)
- Wolves -1.5 games (+115)
- Wolves -2.5 games (+220)
David’s pick: Warriors in 7
This series is going to be physical. The Warriors are undersized, much like the Lakers were, but Draymond Green is far better than any makeshift center the Lakers had to offer. Whether or not Rudy Gobert can establish himself will, once again, be a key to the series. However, I am fully bought in on the Jimmy Butler experience and expect this to be another team he unexpectedly carries to a conference finals. The Wolves are going to have to wait one more year, at least, before they take the throne.
Series props:
- Anthony Edwards to lead the series in threes made (+185)
- Over 5.5 games (-155)
- Warriors to win 4-3 (+700)
Edwards has great value here, considering the volume of threes he takes and the way they will guard Steph Curry. This series is going at least six games, and the Warriors will win in seven, so take these to play into that outcome.