2025 Big 12 Football Preview: Non-Conference Slate

Which non-conference games will have the biggest impact on the Big 12 College Football Playoff hunt in 2025?

For the Big 12, the conference title race and the right to earn the automatic bid into the College Football Playoff will remain the primary path to a National Title. However the league has bigger dreams, with visions of its teams hosting on-campus Playoff games, earning CFP bye weeks, and multiple teams receiving Playoff bids. After just one season of the 12-team Playoff, college football leadership decided to make an immediate change, announcing that the Playoff will turn to straight-seeding methodology rather than granting a first round bye to the top-four conference champions as 2024 Big 12 champion Arizona State earned in 2024. With this new seeding plan going into place for 2025, it will be even more critical for Big 12 squads to deliver during the non-conference schedule in order to demonstrate value on the national scale and climb further up the rankings if the league ever hopes to receive another first round bye or place multiple teams into the field. So which teams have the best opportunity to earn marquee wins and make waves on the national scene through the non-conference slate in 2025? Let’s rank the Big 12 out of conference games that will have the biggest impact on the Playoff race this season:

TIER 5 – FCS Opponents

These resume-killers are must-wins while delivering no benefit to a team’s record strength. No matter how good an FCS team turns out to be by the end of the season, if a Big 12 team drops a game here, it’s Big 12 Title or bust and will bring much shame upon that university and the conference. Only one Big 12 team skips the FCS game on its schedule this season: Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes, who instead play Delaware in the Blue Hens’ first season in FBS. We’ll lump this whole group together in one tier, as every team is just hoping to get some good reps, work out the issues, remain healthy, and pick up a win towards bowl eligibility. Note: In parenthesis: Current 2025 ESPN SP+ ranking noted for each FBS opponent & final 2024 SP+ ranking for every FCS opponent

• Cincinnati vs. Northwestern State (127)
• UCF vs. NC A&T (122)
• Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff (120)
• Kansas vs. Wagner (108)
• Utah vs. Cal Poly (104)
• BYU vs. Portland State (89)
• West Virginia vs. Robert Morris (66)
• Baylor vs. Samford (56)
• Kansas State vs. North Dakota (44)
• Arizona vs. Weber State (42)
• TCU vs. Abilene Christian (40)
• Arizona State vs. Northern Arizona (16)
• Houston vs. Stephen F. Austin (13)
• Oklahoma State vs. UT Martin (11)
• Iowa State vs. South Dakota (4)

Tier 4 – Shameful Scheduling

Only two teams avoid playing a Power conference team during the 2025 three non-conference opportunities – Houston and Texas Tech. To be fair, Oregon State was once a member of the once powerful Pac 12 (RIP) and Houston was previously not at the Power-level, so the dynamic has shifted since these games were originally conceived. The Red Raiders overflowed the bank accounts of every player in the transfer portal this offseason and is poised for a CFP-or-bust campaign with its best team since 2008; instead of using that firepower to stare down the giants, Joey McGuire’s squad is choosing to remain sheltered in Lubbock and play on Freshman difficulty until league play begins

As for K-State-Arizona – this will surely be a good game between capable teams, however can we stop with the intra-conference “non-conference” games? Understanding the series was scheduled prior to becoming conference-mates, but y’all couldn’t figure out someone else to play out of the 120 non-Big 12 FBS teams? These can only serve to bring the conference down rather than the two missed opportunities otherwise available for the teams to slay a foe from another league.

• Texas Tech vs. Kent State (136) – Week 2
• Houston at Rice (121) – Week 2
• Houston at Oregon State (73) – Week 5
• Texas Tech vs Oregon State (73) – Week 3
• Kansas State at Arizona – Week 3

Tier 4 – Cupcake Traps

Many Big 12 squads have made the conscious decision to add resume landmines to the schedule. While most programs believe these games to be simple walkover wins over vastly over-matched opponents, these lower-tier FBS opponents will be highly motivated for an upset and any loss for the Big 12 would be seen as a major embarrassment. Winning these games have little national relevance other than improving the overall record

• Oklahoma State vs Tulsa (120) – Week 4
• Colorado vs. Delaware (110) – Week 2
• Arizona vs. Hawaii (108) – Week 1
• Cincinnati vs Bowling Green (111) – Week 2
• UCF vs. Jacksonville State (104) – Week 1
• Colorado vs Wyoming (105) – Week 4
• Kansas vs. Fresno State (89) – Week 0
• Arizona State vs. Texas St (93) – Week 3
• Iowa State at Arkansas St (100) – Week 3
• Utah at Wyoming (105) – Week 3
• West Virginia at Ohio (80) – Week 2
• BYU at East Carolina (90) – Week 4

TIER 3 – Measuring Sticks

While perhaps not the most high-profile of matchups, these games serve as solid guidance as to which way the trend line is pointing for a program and for the conference. Taking on real quality opponents during the non-conference period will give a glimpse into the ceiling (or floor) for where these squads could stack up during conference play.

• Kansas State vs. Army (67) – Week 2
  The only game outside the Power conferences in this tier or better, Army profiles as a very real threat to win the American – third-best odds at +450 – and be in position to reach the Playoffs. If the Wildcats are to live up to the hype as Big 12 favorites, a home win over a top G5 contender is both necessary and a valuable resume boost.
• BYU vs. Stanford (88) – Week 2
  It is critical that the Big 12 win every opportunity it has against the ACC as the two leagues jockey for position in the national consciousness. While there is some roster uncertainty for the Cougars, this game in Provo against the team projected last place in the ACC is a must win
• Utah at UCLA (51) – Week 1
  The Nico Iamaleava addition to the Bruins in the offseason gives this game a bit more juice. The Utes dominated the series while conference mates in the PAC 12, winning six of the last seven contests. Perhaps Kyle Whittingham’s squad can pick up a win in the Rose Bowl that has eluded it so often.
• Arizona State at Mississippi State (71) – Week 2
  The Big 12 favorite vs. the team projected for last place in the SEC. It is imperative the Sun Devils not add any further fuel to the SEC’s superiority complex as you can already hear the national media talking points should Kenny Dillingham’s team get dog-walked by the Bulldogs in Starkville.
• UCF vs North Carolina (54) – Week 4
  Perhaps the Belichick media storm will have died down by late September, but I wouldn’t count on it. The UNC circus will roll into the Bounce House for the first high-profile game of Scott Frost’s return tenure in Orlando. The Knights have a nearly entirely rebuilt transfer-fueled roster, so it’s difficult to know what to expect, but a win under this spotlight would be significant.
• Colorado vs. Georgia Tech (44) – Week 1
  What will the Buffaloes look like without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter after a major step forward in 2024? The real test for CU in this one will be slowing the Yellowjackets’ offense, expected to be one of the nation’s best with returning QB-RB combo of Haynes King and Jamal Haynes. A true tone-setting contest, informing immediately what these two teams can be in 2025.

TIER 2 – High Stakes Hate

Conference realignment, the corporate takeover of college football, and the effort to maximize home game revenue has de-emphasized many of the sport’s classic vitriol-fueled rivalry contests. These showdowns vs. power conference foes give a prime opportunity to show prowess on the national stage while establishing bragging rights over your despised neighbor.

• Iowa State vs. Iowa (28) – Week 2
  El Assico is always a safe bet (perhaps a poor word choice for these two) to deliver one of the season’s wackiest games with the most random event imaginable providing the winning moment. The away team has won the last three CyHawk trophies, each by a single possession. The teams again project to be evenly matched, perhaps returning Cyclone QB Rocco Becht can deliver ISU’s first win over Iowa in Ames since 2011 to put a Big Ten pelt on the Big 12’s wall.
• West Virginia vs Pittsburgh (47) – Week 3
  The Backyard Brawl returned in 2022 after a decade+ hiatus, with the home team winning each in the the renewed series. Now with Rich Rodriguez back in Morgantown, his last Brawl in 2007 was one of the most impactful games in college football history, with No. 2 WVU falling at home to 7-loss Pitt to fall out of the BCS National Championship race. The Mountaineers will look to exorcise those demons, exact some semblance of revenge, and begin a resurgent climb back to national prominence.
• Kansas at Missouri (21) – Week 2
  The Border War is back on the schedule for the first time since 2011. While Mizzou thinks it should receive an auto-bid to the CFP by simply existing as a member of the SEC, the Tigers have a cakewalk schedule outside of a home contest vs. Alabama. If Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks can go into Columbia and defeat the Tigers it should serve as a Playoff elimination result.
• TCU vs SMU (20) – Week 4
  One of college football’s oldest rivalries will see its last scheduled edition in 2025 as the 104th Battle for the Iron Skillet is the final game of the series that dates back to 1915. Going forward, the Horned Frogs will play home games vs. Arkansas State, Sam Houston, and Texas State rather than the home-and-home with the cross-metroplex rival. The game can often bring out the best and worst of the players, coaches, and fans – as seen in an especially contentious performance in 2024 where TCU coach Sonny Dykes was ejected early in the second half. With the Mustangs coming off a trip to the 12-team College Football Playoff and returning star QB Kevin Jennings, expect the Ponies to be riding high into Fort Worth. Being an opportunity to forever own the “scoreboard” in the rivalry, expect the heat to be turned all the way up in Amon G. Carter Stadium on September 20th for the two programs looking to taste CFP glory again

TIER 1 – National Notice

For a non-conference result to truly matter by the end of the season it needs to make waves in the moment large enough to reverberate throughout the sport and remain a tentpole to a team’s resume all campaign. Earning wins over big brands on a national stage can prop up not only the winning team, but the entire conference. Can the Big 12 put the college football nation on notice by securing signature wins and knocking off some of the sport’s elite?

• TCU at North Carolina (54) – Week 1
  Under normal circumstances this would be under the measuring stick tier, but being Bill Belichick & Jordan Hudson’s first game leading the Tar Heels in a standalone game on Labor Day night to close Week 1, the world will be watching and will remember the result. The Horned Frogs have experience with such a situation, falling victim to the spotlight in Deion Sanders’ first game at Colorado. Should the Frogs earn a major road win over the NFL coaching legend, it’ll be a pillar propping up TCU and the Big 12 all season.
• Cincinnati vs Nebraska (34) – Week 1
  The headliner of Week One’s Thursday night, a primetime showdown at Arrowhead Stadium between a once great powerhouse and Nebraska. Cincinnati is a Playoff and NY6 bowl participant with multiple conference titles in the last decade, Nebraska reached bowl eligibility last season for the first time since 2016. Now in year three of the Scott Satterfield era, the Bearcats need to show signs of life after posting an 8-16 record since joining the Big 12 in 2023. Despite being terrible since firing Bo Pelini after the 2014 season, the Cornhuskers still draw major attention. With all eyes on this one, it’s a huge opportunity for these struggling programs to show real progress and a first step towards a successful season.
• Oklahoma State at Oregon (7) – Week 2
  OK, hear me out. Oregon is a favorite to win the National Championship and Oklahoma State went winless in Big 12 play a season ago. The Ducks are likely to be rightly favored by four scores in Eugene in this one. Will Hauss Hejny and Cowboys roll into Autzen and one of the nation’s best teams? No, no they won’t, but you can imagine what it’d be like if they did. The entire framework of the sport would flip on its head and Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti will demand his league get more guaranteed Playoff spots in order to avoid such a result impacting the Championship race.
• Baylor vs. Auburn (25) – Week 1
• Baylor at SMU (20) – Week 2
  Look, it gives me no pleasure to praise the folks in Waco for anything, but Baylor not only put together the Big 12’s best non-conference slate, but did so with the league’s two best non-conference match ups. Baylor has its sights set super high for 2025 after a breakout 2024. With the return of QB Sawyer Robertson as one of the nation’s most highly touted signal callers, the sky is the limit. With its Big 12 schedule featuring ASU, KSU, and Utah all in McLane Stadium, Baylor is well positioned to compete for a spot in the Conference Championship. With this elite set of non-conference showdowns, the Bears will have every opportunity to remain top-of-mind nationally all season.

Opening with a Friday night banger on Fox in one of the nation’s best non-con showdowns this season. Kudos to Auburn as well, as most SEC teams would refuse to travel for any true road game, much less one against a power conference title contender. The Hugh Freeze era has gotten off to a poor start, with the Tigers losing seven games in each of his two seasons. In 2025 Auburn has much higher expectations, spending huge in the transfer portal with a passing offense that could be lethal with QB Jackson Arnold and WRs Eric Singleton and Cam Coleman.

The Bears follow up the home SEC showcase with a road trip to Dallas to take on 2024 Playoff participant SMU Mustangs in week two. In its first meaningful action since the CFP debacle vs. Penn State, SMU enters as a favorite to again reach the ACC Championship with a schedule that should allow it to remain in CFP conversations all year. Kevin Jennings returns at QB for SMU after throwing three interceptions in the opening round of last season’s Playoffs, but it’s actually the Ponies’ defense that could win the day – a deep and experienced unit with the opportunity to shut down the firepower that the Bears will put on the field. The winner of this one puts its resume on a rocket ship towards a potential first round bye while the loser likely sees its at-large case evaporate.