A look at the game odds and player projections for Saturday’s Sweet Sixteen showdown
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU +260; Notre Dame -325
Spread: ND -7.5
Total Points: 144.5
TCU will be the underFrogs once again. Despite owning an 8-point neutral site head-to-head victory over Notre Dame already this season; despite earning the higher seed in the NCAA Tournament; despite winning the outright Big 12 regular season title; despite cutting the nets in Kansas City as the Big 12 Tournament Champion, the TCU Horned Frogs are heavy underdogs in Birmingham vs. 3-seed Fighting Irish. The Frogs took the November battle in the Cayman Islands, holding the Irish to 34% shooting; a squad that would go on to shoot over 49% for the season. Perhaps that game was an anomaly and Irish simply weren’t feeling the island vibes or perhaps Mark Campbell and the Frogs had the recipe to topple the star-laden squad. Oddsmakers and the marketplace certainly are not putting much stock in that long-ago result, setting the Irish as three-possession favorites. For the season-long metrics, the teams line up extremely similarly. The Frogs are better at the rim and short range on both ends of the court, but Notre Dame is elite from beyond the arc offensively & defensively. The Irish play at a breakneck pace, ranking 12th nationally in adjusted tempo, while the Frogs rank sub-300 nationally. The metrics comparison would suggest this game should play out far closer than this line would suggest and with elite scorers on both sides you can expect some big swings. Which team can take the punch and stand back up? Which team will land the final knockout haymaker and continue dancing into the Elite Eight?
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Hailey Van Lith
- Points: 17.5
- Assists: 5.5
- Made 3FGs: 2.5
Madison Conner
- Points: 14.5
- Made 3FGs: 3.5
Sedona Prince
- Points: 17.5
- Rebounds: 11.5
The game could be similar to the contest held in November where Van Lith, Conner, and Prince each crossed the 18 point threshold. However the stats turn tricky in the postseason. Van Lith hasn’t hit this number in the NCAA Tournament; Conner has only hit 15+ twice in the past six games, while Prince has hit 18 points in three of TCU’s five postseason contests. The Irish are very strong defending the three, but allow teams to shoot from long range at a high volume, so look out for the Frogs to let it rip from long range, with opportunity to find some range and get hot. However maybe don’t count on Notre Dame leaving Madison Conner standing all alone as has often been the case this postseason as Van Lith has been vacuuming the attention of defenders. TCU will need big games from its Big Three to keep dancing through the bracket
Notre Dame
Hannah Hidalgo
- Points: 23.5
- Rebounds: 7.5
- Made 3FGs: 2.5
Liatu King
- Points: 11.5
- Rebounds: 10.5
Olivia Miles
- Points: 15.5
- Rebounds: 7.5
- Assists: 7.5
- Made 3FGs: 1.5
Sonia Citron
- Points: 14.5
- Rebounds: 5.5
- Made 3FGs: 2.5
Hannah Hidalgo is a certified college basketball superstar, a sharpshooter from long range, a playmaker, and efficient volume scorer. She was a dominant force early in the previous game vs. TCU; though all the big talk and showmanship wasn’t enough to get the win, she did deliver a 27-9-5 stat line. Olivia Miles has been working back to health after sustaining an injury in the First Round vs. SFA, so her stats have been depressed, but with the week off for recovery, expect Miles to return to her elite play, though these assist and rebound numbers are well beyond her season averages. As for Citron & King, it will be a question of how many crumbs Miles & Hidalgo leave for their teammates. Both sidekicks have put up huge numbers through two Big Dance contests, but during the ACC Tournament the numbers were well below these projections. If Miles is 100% and TCU doesn’t simply throw all defensive resources at stopping Hidalgo, one might expect Citron & King to return to the form displayed during conference play.