A look at the game odds and player projections for Monday’s Elite Eight showdown
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU +285; Texas -360
Spread: Texas -7.5
Total Points: 129.5
The Horned Frogs are again significant underdogs as the marketplace and oddsmakers continue to doubt TCU throughout its postseason run. With a spot in the Final Four in the line, the upstart underdogs will have to overcome the odds as it has much of the season. While the last game was a battle of elite guard play, this contest will be determined by the bigs in the paint. Madison Booker & Taylor Jones are an elite front court pair that will prove a major challenge to Sedona Prince. The ‘Horns are elite on the offensive glass, ranking 2nd nationally in OREB rate, generating an abundance of second chance opportunities even when shots aren’t falling. For TCU, the advantage is in its shot selection and efficiency. The Frogs are deadly from beyond the arc, but also rank top 10 nationally in 2-point percentage. TCU has the firepower to keep pace with the Longhorns; while fair to have the one-seed favored, this one should be a terrific contest between two superb squads and should play closer than this spread for most of the game.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Hailey Van Lith
- Points: 18.5
- Assists: 7.5
- Rebounds: 5.5
Madison Conner
- Points: 13.5
- Made 3FGs: 4.5
Sedona Prince
- Points: 16.5
- Rebounds: 8.5
Van Lith has been on fire in the postseason for the Horned Frogs and her projects continue to climb. While she is certainly capable of dropping another 20-piece, look for Texas to close her off and close off the paint to Price, leaving Conner as the primary open target and most likely to exceed the point projection. The question for the Frogs will be whether it’s another contest with scoring coming primarily from the Big Three or if the wealth gets spread to Hunter, Emma-Nnopu, and others. TCU will likely need a full team effort to overcome the Longhorns and should be projected to get everyone involved.
Texas
Madison Booker
- Points: 17.5
- Rebounds: 7.5
Rori Harmon
- Points: 8
- Assists: 5.5
Taylor Jones
- Points: 12.5
- Rebounds: 6.5
Rori Harmon is vastly underrated by the marketplace as a scorer. While she is certainly a dynamic true point guard creating for her teammates, and is averaging just 7 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, but averaged 10.7 in the SEC Tournament, including 14 in the Final vs. South Carolina. Even though the Frogs were able to stifle the Notre Dame guards in the last contest, look for Harmon to find some success. Projections for Booker and Jones basically match their season-long averages, so tough to pick either to perhaps fall below vs. the Frogs as each have been solidly dominant throughout the postseason.