Frog Mailbag: Will TCU make it five straight wins over Baylor?

We take Facebook questions and poll our Twitter followers as the Horned Frogs prepare to take on the Bears.

The Bluebonnet Battle… Can we change the name please?

At least that’s how nearly all of the TCU football fans who voted in our weekly polls feel as the Horned Frogs gear up to face the Baylor Bears in Waco on Saturday. Currently standing at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the Big 12 Conference, TCU can make it three straight victories, as well as five straight in the Baylor rivalry, with a win over the Bears. But Baylor has won each of its last two games largely because of its improved offense, which compiled 565 total yards in the team’s 38-28 win over Oklahoma State. With the “Bluebonnet Battle” on the way, here are this week’s polls and questions answered in our newest Frog Mailbag.

The Bears are playing better football because of how well their offense has performed in recent weeks. Former Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson has thrown 11 touchdown passes with just two interceptions over his last two games, while sophomore running back Dawson Pendergrass rushed for a season-high 142 yards during Baylor’s win over Oklahoma State. The Bears have capitalized on big plays offensively, as Robertson threw for 222 yards against the Cowboys despite completing just 11 passes. Moreover, Pendergrass ran for 142 yards on only six carries. Baylor was just as explosive against Texas Tech, with Robertson tossing five touchdown passes while running back Bryson Washington had 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 10 totes. If TCU is unable to stop the big plays, Baylor’s offense could be in for another big game.

TCU currently ranks 128th among FBS teams in average turnover margin per game (-1.38) and 131st in total turnover margin (-11). That’s fifth-worst and third-worst in all of college football, respectively. To make matters even worse, Baylor has largely avoided turning the ball over in its last two games, committing just one during that stretch. Given how many times TCU has turned the ball over this season, I think this is a game where the offense will need to score 30-plus points at a minimum. While I hope that the Horned Frogs can find a way to win the turnover battle, there’s nothing this season that has convinced me that’s realistic. Baylor’s big-play offense facing a vulnerable TCU secondary gives me even more reason to believe that this could be a high-scoring battle.

I’m not surprised that the 2022 bazooka field goal from Griffin Kell is the winner here, but it’s nice to see the double-overtime victory in 2015 get some love here. Fun fact, my brother and I left that game during the third quarter because we forgot to wear rain ponchos. Nevertheless, I’ll never forget Ty Summers storming through the middle for the game-ending tackle. There were also a laughable number of lost fumbles in that game.

It seemed that TCU’s season was dead in the water after the home loss against Houston, but the Horned Frogs found a way to beat Utah on the road and outlast Texas Tech at home. Don’t look now, but should TCU find a way to get through Baylor on Saturday, the Horned Frogs will have bowl eligibility clinched and a path to the 8-or-9 win mark that many fans had set before the season started. Moreover, with the 16-team conference, who knows how the tiebreakers could shake out, meaning that TCU could continue to ascend up the Big 12 ladder. I’m sticking to my original prediction that eight wins would be a successful season for the Horned Frogs. Seven wins or less would leave questions to be answered.

Neither the Utes nor the Red Raiders were able to stop Savion Williams on the ground, as the 6-foot-5 wide receiver ran for 72 yards in both games while adding 81 receiving yards and a touchdown against Texas Tech. What appeared to just be a wrinkle in the offense has become TCU’s go-to rushing attack and I expect that will continue against Baylor.