TCU unable to lock up bid yet, as dominant win over Cincinnati is followed by ugly home loss to Baylor
Horned Frogs Status
- NET Rank: 38 (↓1)
- KenPom Rank: 30 (↑2)
- ESPN BPI: 26 (↑3)
Bracketologists View of TCU:
- Lunardi: 9-seed vs. Northwestern Wildcats in Salt Lake City, UT
- Palm: 7-seed vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers in Salt Lake City, UT
- Haslam: 7-seed
- Torvik: 87% in Tournament; 8.9-seed
- INCCSTATS: 87% in Tournament; 6.7-seed
The Horned Frogs took a nose dive across the board due to the ugly performance on Big Monday vs. the Baylor Bears in Schollmaier Arena. While the final score ended up in single-digits, the efficiency numbers tell the story of a blowout Bears victory. Monday was by far TCU’s worst offensive game of the season, with horrid metrics in every offensive category, including a 38% effective FG rate and 22% turnover rate, with no answer for the Baylor zone defense. It was an unfortunate time to turn in such a poor game on the scoring end of the court because the Frogs actually delivered a standout performance defensively despite missing starting Center Ernest Udeh Jr, holding Baylor to its 3rd-lowest offensive efficiency in Big 12 play, with the Bears losing each of those other two. Thankfully a few days earlier TCU put it all together on both sides of the court to thoroughly dominate Cincinnati on Saturday, delivering TCU’s best defensive game of the conference slate. The Bearcats are now barely holding on to hope of an at-large bid, while the Frogs remain safely above the cut line. The tide can turn in a hurry for TCU, as it is likely to be heavy underdogs in Provo on Saturday against a BYU squad coming off a monumental win over Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. That will be TCU’s last opportunity to truly boost the resume in the regular season, as the two games next week are both likely to qualify as Quad 3, meaning a loss could become a major problem on the resume come Selection Sunday.
Impact Game of the Week:
Note: All rankings are NET unless otherwise noted
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#33 Texas Longhorns (↑5) def. #42 Texas Tech Red Raiders (↓13)
It always is heated when UT heads to Lubbock and it was no different for what will likely be the last time ever. The crowd at United Supermarkets Arena was rowdy as ever, ready to burst into flames as soon as TTU had anything go its way….however not very much went right for the Red Raiders on Tuesday, as it got its doors blown off by the Longhorns. Things got out of hand on the court and in the crowd as the only excitement was Texas’ Brock Cunningham’s form tackle that got him ejected and had the fans tossing items onto the court while students are getting dragged out by the police. The ugly loss drops TTU a tier and potentially down a seed line while the ‘Horns are in a much more comfortable at-large picture and have now pushed well ahead of First Four territory.
Climbing:
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#47 South Carolina Gamecocks (↑11)
The predictive metrics are just haters. SC continues to defy the computers and simply win basketball games, this week it was two road victories, knocking off #78 Ole Miss & #58 Texas A&M to put each very near elimination. The Gamecocks are just one game out of first place in the SEC, but have a brutal close to the regular season, with home games vs. #34 Florida and #5 Tennessee before the season finale at #31 Mississippi State. Assumed to be a lock across many wise Bracketologists, it’s possible South Carolina still closes the season 0-3 and finds itself in dangerous waters on Selection Sunday. -
#40 St. John’s Red Storm (↑10)
Rick Pitino is back and his Red Storm look to be back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. SJU appeared to be down for the count after a three-game losing streak in mid-February, knowing it needed to win out to realistically return to the at-large conversation. It has now won three straight, including a monster home result over #12 Creighton and a Bubble elimination game on the road at Butler that has put the Bulldogs at-large chances below 2%. With two of the easiest Power 6 games possible to close the season (at #319 Depaul and home vs. #207 Georgetown), it is very likely the Red Storm seal the deal next week, but a loss in either of those games would be a major blight on the resume.
Other Key Bubble Wins: #66 UCF (↑8) over Texas Tech; #72 Memphis (↑10) over FAU; #48 Northwestern (↑7) over Maryland; #37 Nevada (5) ↑over Colorado State
Falling:
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#58 Texas A&M Aggies (↓9)
It gives me no joy to once again put the Aggies here in the falling category for the third straight week, but TAMU has not won since February 10, having dropped five straight. These losses were more forgivable, falling to two AP ranked foes, but A&M was absolutely blasted off the court in Knoxville, losing by five touchdowns to the Volunteers and followed that up with a Quad 2 home loss to South Carolina. Texas A&M has to be one of the most disappointing teams in college basketball, with a loaded roster and ranked in the Top 15 to enter the season, the Aggies now have a 3% chance of earning an at-large bid. With only Q3 games remaining on the schedule, A&M likely must win out to finish the regular season to remain in Bubble contention. -
#59 Virginia Tech (↓8)
It was a brutal week on the Bubble for the Hokies following its 34-point win over UVA last week. VA Tech was looking at a two-game road trip where two high quality wins at Pitt and Syracuse put it in very strong at-large consideration, instead it was two lopsided losses and now the Hokies are hanging on by the slimmest thread to any hope of reaching the Tournament. Dropping those games didn’t just damage VT’s case for a Tourney invitation, it gave critical wins to fellow ACC Bubble contenders. Hosting Wake Forest on Saturday, it’s Virginia Tech’s final opportunity at a quality win and a loss should eliminate the Hokies from further consideration. - Other Key Bubble Losses: #69 Butler (↓7) losses vs. Seton Hall & St. John’s; #25 New Mexico (↓5) loss vs. Air Force; #51 Drake (↓7) loss to Northern Iowa
Bubble Watch
It was a quiet week around the race for at-large bids; during the midweek slate, NET Top 50 teams only lost 12 games and only three of those came to teams outside the Top 50. Five teams locked in a 100% likelihood of reaching the NCAA Tournament, bringing the total number of locks to 21 with an additional 24 bids guaranteed to Conference Champion automatic qualifiers, leaving the rest of the field with just 23 available at-large spots. Only three squads saw their at-large odds officially hit 0%, per barttorvik.com’s TourneyCast: Grand Canyon visited Texas and left with losses to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian to revert the WAC to a one-bid league; Washington got blasted by Arizona as expected and fell to 8th in the Pac 12 and cannot finish the season above .500 in league play; LSU took a 20-point home loss to Mississippi State and only has games vs. NET 125 or worse squads to close the season. This leaves the at-large race between 52 programs fighting for those 23 spots. The cut line currently sits between the Seton Hall Pirates with a 59% likelihood and FAU Owls with a 53.9% probability to earn an at-large bid. The loaded weekend slate of games ahead should prove to shake up these tiers even further as we creep ever closer to Selection Sunday on March 17th.
Look Ahead:
Bubble Battles:
- Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks – Sat. Mar. 2, 11:00 AM, ESPN
- Villanova Wildcats at Providence Friars – Sat. Mar. 2, 11:00 AM, FOX
- Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats – Sat. Mar. 2, 4:30 PM, Big Ten Network
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies – Sat. Mar. 2, 4:30 PM, CW
- Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats – Sat. Mar. 2, 6:00 PM, ESPN+
- New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos – Sat. Mar. 2, 7:00 PM, CBS Sports Net
Seeding Battles
- Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears – Sat. Mar. 2, Noon, ABC
- Illinois Illini at Wisconsin Badgers – Sat. Mar. 2, Noon, Big Ten Network
- Marquette Golden Eagles at Creighton Bluejays – Sat. Mar. 2, 1:30 PM, FOX
- Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide – Sat. Mar. 2, 7:00 PM, ESPN
Bubble vs. Likely Locks
- Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats – Sat. Mar. 2, 1:00 PM, ESPN
- UCF Knights vs. Iowa State Cyclones – Sat. Mar. 2, 3:00 PM, ESPN
- NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels – Sat. Mar. 2, 3:00 PM, ESPN
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers – Sat. Mar. 2, 3:00 PM, ESPN2
- Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils – Sat. Mar. 2, 5:00 PM, ESPN
- Oklahoma Sooners vs. Houston Cougars – Sat. Mar. 2, 7:00 PM, ESPN2
- Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers – Sat. Mar. 2, 7:00 PM, FOX
- TCU Horned Frogs at BYU Cougars – Sat. Mar. 2, 8:00 PM, ESPN+
- Gonzaga Bulldogs at Saint Mary’s Gaels – Sat. Mar. 2, 9:00 PM, ESPN
- Seton Hall Pirates at UConn Huskies – Sun. Mar. 3, 11:00 AM, CBS
Bubble vs. Spoilers
- James Madison Dukes at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers – Fri. Mar. 1, 6:30 PM, ESPN+
- Princeton Tigers vs. Columbia Lions – Fri. Mar. 1, 7:00 PM, ESPN+
- Dayton Flyers at Loyola Chicago Ramblers – Fri. Mar. 1, 8:00 PM, ESPN2
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Fresno State Bulldogs – Fri. Mar. 1, 9:30 PM, CBS Sports Net
- Utah State Aggies vs. Air Force Falcons – Fri. Mar. 1, 10:00 PM, FS1
- FAU Owls vs. Tulane Green Wave – Sat. Mar. 2, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
- Butler Bulldogs at Depaul Blue Demons – Sat. Mar. 2, 11:00 AM, FS1
- Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys – Sat. Mar. 2, 1:00 PM, ESPN2
- SMU Mustangs vs. UTSA Roadrunners – Sat. Mar. 2, 2:00 PM, ESPN+
- Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions – Sat. Mar. 2, 2:15 Big Ten Network
- LSU Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores – Sat. Mar. 2, 2:30 SEC Network
- South Florida Bulls at Charlotte 49ers – Sat. Mar. 2, 3:00 PM, ESPN+
- Colorado State Rams vs. Wyoming Cowboys – Sat. Mar. 2, 3:00 PM
- Pitt Panthers at Boston College Eagles – Sat. Mar. 2, 5:00 PM ACC Network
- Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers – Sat. Mar. 2, 5:00 PM, ESPN2
- Texas A&M Aggies at Georgia Bulldogs – Sat. Mar. 2, 5:00 PM, SEC Network
- Richmond Spiders vs. VCU Rams – Sat. Mar. 2, 5:00 PM, CBS Sports Net
- Washington State Cougars vs. UCLA Bruins – Sat. Mar. 2, 6:00 PM, Pac 12 Network
- Princeton Tigers vs. Cornell Bears – Sat. Mar. 2, 6:00 PM, ESPN+
- Xavier Musketeers at Georgetown Hoyas – Sat. Mar. 2, 6:30 PM, FS1
- Clemson Tigers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Sat. Mar. 2, 6:45 PM, CW
- Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinals – Sat. Mar. 2, 7:00 PM, ACC Network
- Ole Miss Rebels at Missouri Tigers – Sat. Mar. 2, 7:30 PM, SEC Network
- Utah Utes vs. Cal Bears – Sat. Mar. 2, 8:00 PM, ESPN+
- UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. San Jose State Spartans – Sat. Mar. 2, 9:00 PM, CBS Sports Net
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Indiana Hoosiers – Sun. Mar. 3, 1:00 PM, CBS
- Drake Bulldogs vs. Bradley Braves – Sun. Mar. 3, 2:30 PM, ESPN2
- Indiana State Sycamores vs. Murray State Racers – Sun. Mar. 3, 3:00 PM, ESPN+
- Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines – Sun. Mar. 3, 3:00 PM, CBS
- Memphis Tigers vs. UAB Blazers – Sun. Mar. 3, 4:30 PM, ESPN2
- Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights – Sun. Mar. 3, 5:30 PM, Big Ten Network
- Colorado Buffaloes vs. Stanford Cardinal – Sun. Mar. 3, 8:00 PM, FS1