NCAA Womens Basketball: Big 12 Conference Tournament Quarterfinal-Colorado vs TCU — Amy Kontras-Imagn Images

Where should the Horned Frogs be seeded on Selection Sunday?

Horned Frogs Status

AP Rank: 6
NET Rank: 8
Torvik: 8
RPI: 8
Quad 1: 8-3 | Quad 2: 5-0 | Quad 3: 4-0 | Quad 4: 14-0
NET SOS: 39 | Avg. NET Win: 114 | Avg. NET Loss: 13

Bracketologists View of TCU:

ESPN: 2-seed vs. Stephen F. Austin (Southland Champion)
NCAA: 2-seed vs. Southeastern Louisiana
College Sports Madness: 2-seed vs. Southeastern Louisiana
Her Hoops: 2-seed vs. Tennessee Tech (OVC Champion)

It was an incredible week of basketball in Kansas City for the Horned Frogs, culminating in a triumph over the Baylor Bears in the Big 12 Championship. It’s a monumental achievement for the TCU program: locking its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010, and its first conference tournament title since 2005. TCU had already been revealed among the Selection Committee’s Top 16 seeds at the end of February, placing ninth overall in that formal bracket preview, solidly secured with a top-4 seed and hosting opportunity, but placed below Notre Dame and NC State teams which TCU defeated during the regular season. While TCU does not have the brand cache in the sport as a relative newcomer to this elite standing, running through the Big 12 Tournament not only secured a hosting spot in the final bracket, the Frogs continued to climb in esteem, contending further up that seed list. Did the Horned Frogs do enough to jump all the way up to a one or two seed, or will the committee keep TCU at a three-seed or lower? We’ll find out on Selection Sunday, March 16 at 7:00 PM on ESPN. Until then, let’s review how the TCU resume stacks up against other top contenders.

The 1-Seeds feel pretty unimpeachable here. TCU is clearly not passing a defending Champion South Carolina squad that smoked the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth earlier this season. Big Ten Champs UCLA are also untouchable as a one seed, with its only two losses on the season being to cross town conference rival Trojans before finally besting USC in the B1G Title Game. The SEC and Big Ten runners-up are the projected other one-seeds, and while USC and Texas fell short in conference championships, each has an elite resume, joining South Carolina & UCLA as the only four teams in the sport with double-digit Quad 1 wins. Each has as many or more Q1 wins as TCU has Q1+Q2 wins. I think it’s safe to say TCU will not have a one next to its name on the bracket.

Currently projected on the two-line TCU is joined there by Notre Dame, NC State, and UConn. Having already taken down the Irish and the Wolfpack while having comparable, at worst, resumes, one might think TCU should be safely ahead of those two ACC squads, though the Committee has yet to slot them as such at every opportunity during the regular season. The other 2-seed being Big East Champion UConn is an intriguing resume case study. The Huskies’ schedule strength is the worst of the top contenders, but the Paige Bueckers-led squad has absolutely dominated its competition, earning the top ranking in the predictive metrics and the NCAA’s NET. While there might be some vulnerability in the 2-seeds, it’d be hard to believe TCU falls to the bottom of this pool or gets surpassed by the teams projected just below,

Of the 3-seeds, there is really only one with the resume bona-fides to contend for a spot up on the two line, and that’s ACC Champion Duke Blue Devils. The Kara Lawson-coached team made a huge statement in the conference tournament, blitzing past Louisville, Notre Dame, and NC State to cut down the nets in Greensboro. Duke has elite metrics and top-5 schedule strength, but is the only top contender with a Quad 2 black eye, suffering two Q2 losses. While a narrow home loss to Louisville could possibly be forgiven, pairing that with a loss to South Florida should be enough to keep the Devils at bay.

Perhaps it will be a drama-free Selection Sunday for the Horned Frogs, with the NCAA Tournament Committee rightfully placing TCU as a 2-seed, but as all Frogs fans know, nothing is certain when a Committee gets involved. In any case, there is no realistic situation where TCU falls out of a hosting spot as a top-4 seed, another unprecedented moment to be celebrated in this magical season.