The Frogs will take on the Fighting Irish in the first Sweet Sixteen game in program history.
TCU Women’s Basketball advanced to the first Sweet Sixteen in program history with an 85-70 win over Louisville last Sunday in Fort Worth. The Frogs will face the number three-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their next game, with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. The Frogs and Irish faced off earlier this season in the Cayman Islands Classic on November 29th, with TCU making a fourth-quarter comeback to capture a 76-68 win.
Team Overview
Notre Dame is 28-5 on the season with a stellar 16-2 record in ACC play, good for a tie with NC State at the top of the conference. The Irish took down the number 14-seeded Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks in the round of 64 by a score of 106-54, and the number six-seeded Michigan Wolverines in the round of 32 by a score of 76-55. In both games, Notre Dame held their opponent to under 40% shooting from the field and forced at least 16 turnovers. The Irish have been clicking on both ends of the floor, shooting above 50% from the field as a team in both games. Notre Dame has also collected more rebounds and assists than their opponent in both tournament games. All in all, the Fighting Irish are playing their best basketball at the right time.
Notre Dame sports one of the most prolific offenses in the nation, averaging 85.1 points per game which ranks sixth in the nation. The Irish do a great job of sharing the basketball with 17.6 assists per game, ranking 16th in the nation. Notre Dame is the best three-point shooting team in the nation by percentage, knocking down over 39% of their attempts from deep as a team. The three-point shooting threats create great spacing for the ball handlers for Notre Dame, who are more than capable of taking advantage and driving into the paint.
Notre Dame is much less of a juggernaut on the defensive end, giving up 61.7 points per game which ranks 111th in the nation. The Irish do a good job of defending the three-point shot, as opponents are making just 27% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Opponents have had success getting into the lane and drawing contact against the Irish, as Florida State and NC State both attempted over 20 free throws in wins over Notre Dame this season.
The last time these two teams met, the Frogs pulled off the comeback behind a tremendous defensive effort, holding the Irish to just 34.7% shooting from the field. TCU also did a great job of getting to the line with 19 free throw attempts in the game. Sedona Prince was excellent in the win with 20 points, 20 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and eight blocks. The Frogs did not shoot the three very well, but scored 34 points in the paint to carry the offense.
Key Players
Star guard Hannah Hidalgo has been on a tear to start the NCAA Tournament with statlines of 24 points, six rebounds, five assists, and five steals against the Lumberjacks and 21 points, one rebound, three assists, and two steals against the Wolverines. The sophomore is leading the Irish in scoring this season at 24.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field. Hidalgo is a deadly three-point shooter, knocking down over 40% of her shots from three while attempting almost five threes per game. Expect plenty of defensive attention from TCU to be directed towards slowing Hidalgo down.
The primary playmaker for the Irish this season has been Olivia Miles, who is averaging 15.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. Miles has been a little banged up to start the NCAA Tournament with just ten total points through the first two games, but has not stopped collecting assists with five against Michigan and eight against SFA. Miles is another dangerous shooter for Notre Dame, making over 40% of her threes on 5.4 attempts per game.
Sonia Citron and Liatu King are two more key contributors for Notre Dame. Citron is the third leading scorer on the team, averaging 14.2 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three. King is one of the premier rebounders in the nation, averaging a double-double with 11.4 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. A key matchup in this game will be between King and Sedona Prince on the boards.
Overall
Notre Dame and TCU boast two of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation. Both teams can do damage from three and have plenty of shot creation from their guards. Notre Dame leans even heavier on the three-point shot than TCU does, while the Frogs get more buckets in the paint than the Irish. The Frogs will need to shoot well from three to keep up with Notre Dame, but in crunch time, I expect TCU’s ability to control the paint on both sides of the floor to be the difference.
Final Prediction: TCU 78, Notre Dame 75