The Frogs will take on the Longhorns at 6 p.m. tonight with a chance to advance to the Final Four.
TCU Women’s Basketball advanced to the Elite Eight for the first time in program history with a win over Notre Dame on Saturday by a score of 71-62. The Frogs are now set to take on the top-seeded Texas Longhorns with a trip to the Final Four on the line. The Longhorns are favored by 7.5 points by Vegas, but the Frogs are no strangers to being doubted, as they took down Notre Dame as a 7.5-point underdog in the Sweet Sixteen.
Team Overview
Texas has been one of the top teams in college basketball all season with an overall record of 34-3. The Longhorns finished tied for the top of the SEC with South Carolina with an impressive conference record of 15-1. Texas took down the sixteen seed, William and Mary, in the first round by a score of 105-61, the eight seed, Illinois, in round two by a score of 65-48, and the four seed, Tennessee, in the Sweet Sixteen by a score of 67-59 to make it to the matchup with the Horned Frogs.
The defense from Texas has been excellent in the NCAA Tournament, holding all three opponents to below 40% shooting from the field. The performance against Tennessee was especially impressive, as the Longhorns held the Lady Vols to 37.9% shooting from the field and 19.2% shooting from three. Texas also forced 18 Tennessee turnovers, which resulted in 19 points off those turnovers for the Longhorns. The one aspect of the Texas defense that struggled against the Lady Vols was defensive rebounding. Tennessee collected 17 offensive rebounds against Texas compared to just nine offensive boards from the Longhorns. Expect TCU to crash the offensive glass hard against the Longhorns to create extra possessions.
TCU will be playing against one of the best offenses in the nation in the Longhorns as they average 79.3 points per game, which ranks 16th in the nation. The Longhorns do not rely on the three-point shot for their scoring, shooting just 29.6% from beyond the arc this season and averaging around ten three-point attempts per game as a team, which ranks 350th in the nation. The Horns have solid ball movement and average 16.4 assists per game as a team, which ranks 35th in the nation.
While Texas is not a heavy outside shooting team, they excel at scoring in the paint and drawing contact to get to the free throw line, averaging 21.94 free throw attempts per game, ranking tenth in the nation. A key for the Frogs will be to defend without fouling in the paint, as TCU has a short bench and cannot afford for important players to get into foul trouble.
Texas is a very solid defensive team, with opponents scoring just 55.8 points per game against them this season. The Longhorns do a good job limiting three-point shooting by opposing teams, as opponents are making just 28% of their shots from deep against UT this season.
Key Players
Sophomore Madison Booker leads Texas in scoring at 16.4 points per game, along with 6.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Booker has had a very good NCAA Tournament so far with 20 points and 14 rebounds in the first round, 20 points and six rebounds against Illinois, and 17 points and six rebounds against Tennessee.
The leading rebounder for the Longhorns this season has been Taylor Jones, who is averaging 12.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game this season. Jones was impactful on both ends of the floor against Tennessee with 12 points, eight rebounds, three blocks, and one steal against the Lady Vols.
Guard Rori Harmon leads Texas in assists this season with averages of 9.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. Harmon has had at least a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio in each of the three NCAA Tournament games this postseason.
Overall
Texas presents a much different challenge than Notre Dame did, with the Longhorns doing most of their damage from the paint compared to the three-point barrage from the Fighting Irish. Sedona Prince and Agnes Emma-Nnopu will both need to play well defensively to limit UT’s scoring and to stay out of foul trouble. I think TCU has the three point shooting potential to outscore Texas and the defensive structure to hold up against the Longhorn offense.
Final Prediction: TCU 72, Texas 68