2022 NFL Draft: How a tiered big board can help clarify Cowboys draft strategy

NFL: NFL Draft — Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

We look at the Top 106 players in the 2022 NFL draft and group them into tiers to better understand the Cowboys’ options at each point in the draft.

A couple of weeks ago, ESPN’s Todd McShay proposed a ranking of the top 106 players in the draft, which covers the players he has a first-, second- or third-round grade on. Unique to McShay’s ranking is that he conveniently separates the prospects into different tiers, which can be helpful when predicting “where players will come off the board during the first three rounds of the draft.”

A tiered approach can be particularly helpful as we try to figure out what the Cowboys draft strategy could, or should, look like. Let’s start with the first round, which McShay has broken into three tiers. Tier one, which should be a starter from Day 1 and project as perennial Pro Bowl player is empty in this draft.

That brings us to Tier 2 prospects, players McShay calls plug-and-play starters.

TIER 2
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
1	Aidan Hutchinson	DE	Michigan	94
2	Ikem Ekwonu	OT	NC State	93
3	Evan Neal	OT	Alabama	93
4	Kyle Hamilton	S	Notre Dame	93
5	Ahmad Gardner	CB	Cincinnati	93
6	Garrett Wilson	WR	Ohio State	92
7	Kayvon Thibodeaux	DE	Oregon	92
8	Travon Walker	DE	Georgia	92
9	Drake London	WR	USC	92

It’s safe to assume the players in Tier 2 are completely out of reach for the Cowboys. None of these players will fall far enough for the Cowboys, and trading up for one of these top 10 prospects is simply too expensive. Note on the color code: Players who were invited for one of the 29 official pre-draft visits are marked in green in this and all following tables.

Where it gets more interesting are the Tier 3 players, prospects that carry late-first-round grades, as McShay explains.

TIER 3
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
10	Jermaine Johnson II	DE	Florida State	91
11	Derek Stingley Jr.	CB	LSU	91
12	Nakobe Dean	ILB	Georgia	91
13	Devin Lloyd	ILB	Utah	91
14	Trent McDuffie	CB	Washington	90
15	Charles Cross	OT	Mississippi State	90
16	Jordan Davis	DT	Georgia	90
17	Chris Olave	WR	Ohio State	90
18	Tyler Linderbaum	C	Iowa	90
19	Jameson Williams	WR	Alabama	90
20	Devonte Wyatt	DT	Georgia	90
21	Malik Willis	QB	Liberty	90
22	Kenny Pickett	QB	Pittsburgh	90
23	Daxton Hill	S	Michigan	90

I’m sure we’d have reason to quibble over a few names that should or should not be in Tier 3, but if we assume the Cowboys have around 20 players with a first-round grade on their board (as they’ve frequently had in the past), then the 23 names above could be at least a rough approximation of the top players the Cowboys have on their board.

Assuming the pre-draft visits carry some weight (which they have in the past), McShay’s ranking suggests Devin Lloyd, Charles Cross, Jordan Davis, or Chris Olave would be the picks at 24, assuming they fall that far.

Of course, not everybody agrees with McShay’s ranking. Take Devin Lloyd: Dane Brugler ranks him 7th overall, Gil Brandt ranks him 14th, PFF has him ranked 15th overall, and CBS Sports ranks Lloyd 20th.

But if we stick with McShay’s ranking, Tier 3 shows players that, if they were to fall all the way to No. 24, the Cowboys should draft irrespective of need, simply because they would be the only players left with a first-round grade.

If we discount the two QBs in the Tier 3 list, it’s particularly noteworthy that eight of the 12 Tier 3 players are defensive players. If the Cowboys are looking for an offensive lineman and Charles Cross is gone, the Cowboys could look to trade down for Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson at the bottom of the first round.

With a trade-down comes additional draft bounty. And that could open up a lot of interesting options for Tier 4 players, the meat-and-potatoes part of the draft for the Cowboys.

TIER 4
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade	Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
24	George Karlaftis	DE	Purdue	89	35	Quay Walker	ILB	Georgia	87
25	Trevor Penning	OT	Northern Iowa	89	36	Desmond Ridder	QB	Cincinnati	87
26	Treylon Burks	WR	Arkansas	89	37	Christian Harris	ILB	Alabama	86
27	Kenyon Green	G	Texas A&M	89	38	Arnold Ebiketie	DE	Penn State	86
28	Jahan Dotson	WR	Penn State	89	39	Travis Jones	DT	Connecticut	86
29	Andrew Booth.	CB	Clemson	89	40	Logan Hall	DE	Houston	86
30	David Ojabo	OLB	Michigan	88	41	Jalen Pitre	S	Baylor	86
31	Kyler Gordon	CB	Washington	88	42	Skyy Moore	WR	W. Michigan	85
32	Boye Mafe	OLB	Minnesota	88	43	Bernhard Raimann	OT	C. Michigan	85
33	Zion Johnson	G	Boston College	88	44	Kenneth Walker	RB	Michigan St.	85
34	Matt Corral	QB	Mississippi	88	45	Christian Watson	WR	N. Dakota St.	85

Barring a dropping Tier 3 player, Tier 4 is where the Cowboys’ first-round pick is going to come from. Five of the Cowboys’ pre-draft visitors show up in this tier, and with a little bit of luck, the Cowboys might still be able to snag a Tier 4 player with their 56th pick. If not, there will be further options for the Cowboys in Tier 5 where the Cowboys will find what McShay calls “middle- or late-second-round prospects.”

TIER 5
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade	Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
46	Breece Hall	RB	Iowa State	84	57	George Pickens	WR	Georgia	83
47	Kaiir Elam	CB	Florida	84	58	Tyler Smith	OT	Tulsa	82
48	Leo Chenal	ILB	Wisconsin	84	59	Trey McBride	TE	Colorado St.	82
49	Phidarian Mathis	DT	Alabama	84	60	Daniel Faalele	OT	Minnesota	82
50	Sam Howell	QB	North Carolina	84	61	Drake Jackson	OLB	USC	81
51	Perrion Winfrey	DT	Oklahoma	84	62	DeMarvin Leal	DE	Texas A&M	81
52	Lewis Cine	S	Georgia	84	63	John Metchie	WR	Alabama	81
53	Nick Cross	S	Maryland	83	64	DeAngelo Malone	OLB	W. Kentucky	80
54	Roger McCreary	CB	Auburn	83	65	Chad Muma	ILB	Wyoming	80
55	Abraham Lucas	OT	Washington St.	83	66	Jaquan Brisker	S	Penn State	80
56	Nik Bonitto	OLB	Oklahoma	83

If you take the Cowboys’ pre-draft visit list as an indicator of their interest in a prospect, there’s no reason why the Cowboys shouldn’t be able to select their top two picks from that pool.

I’m not going to bother listing all the Tier 6 names (you can look at them here), and instead only list the three players on the list the Cowboys brought in for a visit.

TIER 6
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
76	Myjai Sanders	DE	Cincinnati	77
91	Cameron Jurgens	C	Nebraska	73
103	Jelani Woods	TE	Virginia	70

You may have noticed that only 15 pre-Draft visitors show up on McShay’s Top 106. This may have something to do with what Peter King calls a “Mysterious Year” for the 2022 draft.

It’s going to be a bad year for mock drafts.

Great line from a top GM Saturday night: “You can take the top 20 most plugged-in guys in your business. Ask them to pick the top 10 guys in this draft. I would bet a lot of money no two guys have the same top 10. When you don’t know who’s going one or two or three at this point of the year, you’ve got a mysterious year.”

In short, rankings are all over the place, any many players the Cowboys consider top 100 prospects may not be on Brugler’s list, and vice versa.

At the same time, the Cowboys, for whatever reason, included more late-round picks or even UDFAs in their Top 30 visitors list.

Remember the surprise picks in last year’s draft (“Nahshon who?!?”); get ready for more of that this year.

If you don’t like Todd McShay’s ranking, you can do the same exercise with any other draft board. None of the others are as neatly divided into tiers, but they’ll give you a good idea of who’ll be available where as well.

There’s not much time left until the draft starts, and as you start thinking about a big board, or as you look at other people’s boards, see if you can identify any tiers. They’ll be a good starting point as you whittle down the names to arrive at a more manageable shortlist.