How would Cowboys fans feel about these potential trade down scenarios?
A little over a week from the 2021 NFL Draft and many things are still uncertain. You could ask three people what quarterback the San Francisco 49ers are taking at number three and get three different answers. That’s just one of the many questions currently being talked about at the top of this year’s draft.
From a Cowboys perspective, it certainly seems like Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II is the likely pick if he’s on the board. While it’s much more likely the Cowboys stick and make a selection, probably Surtain, with the 10th pick, you can never rule out a trade down. If one of the top four quarterbacks or an impact offensive player falls all the way to 10, Dallas could take advantage and move out of the pick.
If they were to do so, what would a potential deal look like? Below we proposed three potential trade down scenarios for the Cowboys in the 2021 NFL Draft.
(Trade values via the newer Rich Hill DraftTek trade value chart)
Trade #1: Chicago Bears send picks 1-20 and 2-52 (378 points) to Dallas Cowboys for pick 1-10 (369 points)
If a quarterback does fall to the 10th pick, there’s a good chance the Chicago Bears will be interested in trading up. Rumors have already started to surface that Chicago may be looking into moving up in the draft, and the Cowboys could be a perfect trade partner.
This trade would look almost identical to the deal the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers pulled off in 2019. Denver sent the 10th pick to Pittsburgh in return for 1-20, 2-52, and a 2020 third-rounder.
If the Bears were looking to move up and select a quarterback, Dallas potentially could hold out for even more draft capital. But, if they were to agree to this proposed deal, they still would be getting a good return. A move to 20 would still allow Dallas to select a quality player in round one, potentially Caleb Farley, Trevon Moehrig, or Greg Newsome III. The extra second-round pick could be used to move back up into the top of the second round, or even the bottom of the first round
Trade #2: New York Jets send picks 1-23, 2-34, and 5-154 (432 points) to Dallas Cowboys for pick 1-10 and 3-75 (432 points)
While the Jets won’t be moving up for a quarterback, they may be looking to acquire a weapon for the signal-caller they select with the second-overall pick. After acquiring this extra first-round pick from Seattle in the Jamal Adams deal, the Jets have a chance to be ultra-aggressive in this draft.
This deal would move the Cowboys down a considerable 13 spots, but would also net them the second pick (34) of the second round. If the Cowboys were to execute this deal, they wouldn’t have a real shot of getting Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain II, but they could potentially still get Caleb Farley or Greg Newsome II. They also could use either the 23rd or 34th pick on Tusla linebacker Zaven Collins, who the Cowboys seem to be enamored with.
Trade #3: Miami Dolphins send pick 1-18 and 2-50 (402 points) to Dallas Cowboys for pick 1-10 and 4-115 (397 points)
The Dolphins are another team that won’t be moving up for a quarterback, but with five picks in the top 100, Miami has the ability to move around. They already showed they aren’t afraid of moving some spots, trading the third-overall pick to San Francisco, and then dealing back into the top 10 at pick number six with Philadelphia.
If Miami selects a skill position player, possibly tight end Kyle Pitts, at pick six, they could be interested in moving back into the top ten to acquire some offensive line help or a quality defender. In the hypothetical trade, Dallas would move back just eight spots in round one, and pick up another second-round pick, number 50 overall. The Cowboys would then hold picks 44 and 50 in round two, a 250 point value on the DraftTek trade chart.
The Cowboys could keep those picks and have three top 50 players, or combine those second-round picks and move up into the mid-twenties in the first round.
If Surtain is off the board and the Cowboys want to move back, which of these trade back scenarios would you want to see happen?