These games will determine the Cowboys’ season
It’s finally here. The NFL schedule has been released and the Dallas Cowboys kick off the 66th season in their franchise’s history in grand fashion. Ahead of the full schedule being released, we were informed that the Cowboys would be hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday, September 4th. This marks the second time the Cowboys have opened the season against a defending Super Bowl champion since 2012 when the Cowboys defeated the New York Giants 24-17 at Metlife Stadium.
We also learned that the Cowboys would host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Chiefs for Thanksgiving at AT&T Stadium. However, after seeing the Cowboys’ full schedule, those games against Philadelphia and Kansas City will have major implications for the Cowboys’ season among others. Here are the five games that will define the Cowboys season.
Week 15 vs. Vikings
Minnesota went 14-3 last year and it’s impressive because they did it without their 2024 first-round draft choice, J.J. McCarthy, who spent the year on injured reserve after the team moved on from Kirk Cousins. It speaks to the coaching job of Kevin O’Connell and putting his players in a position to be successful. Justin Jefferson is a top three receiver in the NFL and a threat to gash the Cowboys’ secondary.
As a team, the Vikings are still a shade behind Detroit, but very much a Wild Card contender. Potentially losing a head-to-head matchup versus a direct challenger for a playoff spot is never a good thing and can only mean trouble when the year-end playoff scenarios come into play. Minnesota also added defensive tackle Jonathan Allen from the Washington Commanders who is sure to give the Vikings a boost to their interior defensive line. On paper, this a winnable home game for Dallas but could haunt the Cowboys in the postseason chase should they lose.
Week 13 vs. Chiefs
As mentioned, the NFL provided the fans with a must-see TV game in the Cowboys’ traditional Thanksgiving Day timeslot. The TV ratings will be through the roof as families across the nation gather around the table to watch the Cowboys vs. the Chiefs. Holiday spectacle aside, it’s an opportunity for the Cowboys to silence their critics. The Cowboys are being handed a litmus test against one of the best teams in recent memory. The outcome could also have a positive effect heading towards the postseason.
Since 2020, the Cowboys are 19-10 (.665) following the Thanksgiving game. It’ll be interesting how the young Cowboys’ offensive line responds to Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive front led by Chris Jones. Conversely, it’s so a great barometer for Eberflus for how he handles an offense of that caliber if the Cowboys have deep playoff aspirations.
Week 17 vs. Commanders
Unfortunately, the Cowboys have let the division catch up with them and the longtime lowly Commanders overnight have accomplished a feat the Cowboys haven’t since 1995, making an NFC title game. Much of their success has to do with Dan Quinn leaving the Cowboys to lead the Commanders and the team taking well to his tutelage out the gate. Rookie quarterback sensation Jayden Daniels has proved that he will be one of the game’s brightest stars for the future and his proficiency as a runner and passer will be a nightmare to defend.
Washington hosting the Cowboys on Christmas Day that late in the season will either be a gift for the fans or be a lump of coal in all of our stockings. Despite their immediate success with Jayden Daniels, the Commanders weren’t a very balanced roster. That has since changed. With the addition of Deebo Samuel this offseason, the Commanders now have a weapon opposite of Terry McLaurin that gives Daniels another reliable option in addition to Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz. All of a sudden Washington has enough weapons to score at will with the pace of the Cowboys’ offense. Like Minnesota, Washington is going to be in the mix for the postseason and any losses against them jeopardize the Cowboys’ chances of making the postseason.
Week 2 vs. Giants
Contrary to conventional thinking, Week 1 vs. Philadelphia won’t be nearly as important without the added impact of what happens in Week 2 vs. the New York Giants. Although everyone would love to get the win versus the Eagles to kick off the season, winning the game against the Giants is even more vital. Let’s examine the impact of what happens if Dallas wins or loses in Week 1 and then wins or loses against the Giants. If Dallas loses against the Eagles to open the season, then loses against the Giants, the Cowboys would have a 10% chance of making the postseason. Should Dallas win their first two games of the season, they’re not assured of making the playoffs but have a much better chance to make the postseason.
However, with Dak Prescott’s 13-2 record against the Giants, you can almost guarantee Dallas starts the season no worse than .500 but you never know. Also, if Dallas can win their first two games, knocking off the Eagles in the opener and beating New York would put the Cowboys in the early driver’s seat to recapture the NFC East title, with two wins in the division to start the year. In all, losing this game would be a huge disappointment that would be exacerbated by losing to the Eagles in Week 1.
Week 12 vs. Eagles
Forget the pomp and circumstance of the first game of the season. While some fans may be seething at the prospect of the Eagles raising another championship banner, this time in the face of the Cowboys, and the incessant trolling one might endure if the Eagles win in the season opener, it’s more important to not worry about that battle and focus on winning the war later in the season. As we have grown accustomed to seeing, divisions are decided near the end of the season in head-to-head games among opponents. You can feel assured that the division will come down to the final few weeks and the Cowboys must not lose ahead of the short week against the Chiefs to the Eagles.
Luckily the Cowboys will be at home in preparing for a crucial stretch of facing Philadelphia, Kansas City, and the Detroit Lions in consecutive weeks. The Cowboys must avoid a sweep from the Eagles to enjoy the perks of winning the division and not opening the playoffs on the road. This is paramount for trying to advance in the postseason and for the Cowboys to end their NFC title game drought. By then, the Cowboys’ should have plenty of time to acclimate under Matt Eberflus and have a better understanding of how to counter the Eagles’ strengths and exploit their weaknesses. This is the game of the Cowboys’ regular season.