Why Cowboys’ 2025 rookie class may deliver up to four starters

How much impact are you expecting from Cowboys rookies this year?

At irregular intervals over the last decade or so, I’ve tried to project the playing time of Cowboys rookie classes, with varying degrees of success.

• In 2015, the estimate was wildly over-optimistic in projecting 3,000 snaps for a rookie class that ended up playing just 2,092 combined snaps, or 9.1% of the total offensive and defensive snaps that year.
• In 2018, the projection was that the rookie class would play 12.1% (2,838) of all offensive and defensive snaps, and it was a pleasant surprise to find that the projection was very close: The 2018 rookies played exactly 12.1% (2.786) of all snaps.
• In 2020, the projection was 2,458 snaps (10.5%), but injuries to starters pushed the rookie totals to a staggering 3,501 snaps, or 14.0% of all snaps. 2020 UDFA Terence Steele alone accounted for 968 unforeseen snaps.
• In 2021, I was a bit optimistic in projecting almost 3,000 snaps (12.7%), mostly because of vastly overestimating the impact second-round pick Kelvin Joseph would have. Joseph’s paltry 164 rookie snaps limited the 2021 class to 2,510 snaps ( 9.7%)
• In 2024, I projected one of the strongest playing time contributions by a rookie class ever with 3,200 snaps and the rookie class came extremely close with 3,221 combined snaps. Unfortunately, this wasn’t because I am blessed with the gift of prophecy or have access to some top-secret algorithm. Instead, a promising draft class got extended playing time when the Cowboys decided not to acquire or retain free agents to fill key roster holes, and subsequent injuries to veteran players forced the team to play the rookies more than they might have in a normal season.

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Today, I’ll try yet another projection, even if we all know that preseason projections are not worth much. And I’ll try to do it by looking at comparable rookies from previous Cowboys draft classes.

We know, for example, that the Cowboys almost always get an immediate strater when they invest a first-round pick in an offensive lineman. We also know that they’ve had issues (for various reasons) getting strong first-year production from 2nd-round edge rushers, or from late-round defensive tackles not named Jay Ratliff. So picking a comparable rookie from a previous draft class will likely temper our collective optimism and give us a more realistic expectation for the 2025 rookie class.

1st Rd: OG Tyler Booker. By now, the Cowboys have quite the track record with premium draft picks selected to fill specific holes on the O-line.

And we don’t have to go back very far here, we’ll use Tyler Smith and his 1,144 snaps in 2022 as a comparable for Booker.

2nd Rd: DE Donovan Ezeiruaku. The Cowboys history with Day 1/Day 2 pass rushers is less consistent. Here’s an overview going all the way back to DeMarcus Lawrence.

All the players(*) here except Taco Charlton missed sometimes significant playing time in their rookie seasons due to injuries or other reasons, but it’s also not easy to break through as a starter in your rookie season at this position. Ezeiruaku may not immediately be an every-down player, and still has to beat out Dante Fowler for playing time, so a good comparable might be the man he ostensibly replaces, DeMarcus Lawrence, even if Lawrence only notched 223 snaps in his rookie season.

3rd Rd: CB Shavon Revel. The hope with Revel is of course that he’ll be ready to go from day one, but that may be slightly optimistic.

In 2022, DaRon Bland didn’t have a single defensive snap in five of his first six games. Maybe that’s a good comparable for Revel, with 596 snaps.

5th Rd: RB Jaydon Blue. The Cowboys have drafted far fewer mid-round RBs than I would have expected over the last 10+ years.

Of the options here, I’d pick Tony Pollard and his 204 rookie snaps as a comparable. The bigger question then becomes: who’s taking all the other snaps, and I don’t know the answer to that.

5th Rd: LB Shemar James. In 2022, rookie fifth-round LB Damone Clark was thrown into action in Week 8 of his rookie season, when he replaced an injured Anthony Barr for four games, and then played five games for an injured Leighton Vander Esh. Realistically, injuries to the starters are probably the only way James sees extended playing time.

In 2014, Anthony Hitchens followed a similar trajectory. With Sean Lee on IR in 2014, the Cowboys were already thin to start the season. Hitchens played in spot spot duty until he took over as a starter when Justin Durant moved to IR in Week 9 and then further solidified his role when Roland McClain was suspended for Week 13 and beyond.

But for for Shemar James, I’ll take Damien Wilson and his 32 snaps as a comparable.

6th Rd: OL Ajani Cornelius. Fellow OL Asim Richards (2023, 5th round) saw 39 snaps in spot duty in 2023, anything beyond that would probably be a surprise at this stage. OL Nathan Thomas (2024, 7th) saw zero snaps last year. 39 snaps max for Cornelius.

7th Rd: DT Jay Toia. DT Justin Rogers (2024, 7th) didn’t play a single snap, DT John Ridgeway (2022, 5th) didn’t even make the final roster and was claimed off waivers by Washington, DT Quinton Bohanna (2021, 6th) saw a lot of action with 233 snaps, but Joey Ivie and Jordan Carrell (2017, both 7th round) didn’t make the final roster either. So where to put Toia? If the Cowboys bring in a veteran DT, Toia likely won’t see a lot of snaps. But if he and Justin Rogers are all the Cowboys have to spell Mazi Smith then he should see Bohanna-level snaps.

7th Rd: RB Phil Mafah. Comparables here are either Mike Weber (2019, 7th, 0 snaps), Bo Scarborough (2018, 7th, 0 snaps), or Darius Jackson (2016, 6th, 0 snaps). Take your pick.

7th Rd: DT Tommy Akingbesote. The last DT outside of Bohanna not to flame out in his rookie season was Sean Lissemore (2010, 7th), so I’ll use his nine rookie snaps as the comparison here.

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Here’s what all of that adds up to:

Obviously, the “equivalent players” are equivalent for the purposes of the snap count only. This projection also assumes this draft class remains largely healthy; you may want to reduce the total number of projected snaps if you assume differently. You may also want to increase the snap count if you expect significant contributions from UDFAs.

The 9.9% projected snap percentage for the rookie season is a middling value if we look at the averages of the last 15 years. The best two seasons were 2013 at 15.3% (Travis Frederick, Terrance Williams, Jeff Heath, J.J. Wilcox) and 2016 at 13.5% (Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Anthony Brown, Maliek Collins).

But the second year, if this exercise has any merit, is where things get interesting. The 16.8% is the third-best value of the last 15 years, behind only 2022 at 21.9% (Tyler Smith, Daron Bland, Jake Ferguson, Damone Clark) and 2016 at 17.2% (Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Anthony Brown, Maliek Collins).

Aggregated, the numbers suggest the Cowboys got slightly more than the equivalent of two starters for 2025 and the equivalent of about four starters for 2026.

As you look at the numbers and comparisons above, do you expect a higher or lower number of starters?