Taking a look at potential Texas Rangers draft pick Billy Carlson
2025 MLB Draft Preview: Billy Carlson scouting report
The 2025 MLB Draft is less than a week away — the first round kicks off on July 13, 2025 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #12, their second round pick is at #52, and their third round pick is at #84.
Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at California prep shortstop Billy Carlson.
Billy Carlson is a 6’1”, 185 lb. righthanded hitting shortstop out of Corona, California, where he is teammates with pitcher Seth Hernandez — expected to be a top 5 pick — and infielder Brady Ebel, expected to go in the first three rounds. He turns 19 at the end of this month, and is committed to the University of Tennessee.
Carlson has a quality hit tool, with reports praising his bat speed and contact ability. His bat-to-ball skills and athleticism lead many scouts to be bullish on his hitting ability as a pro, though there are some concerns about his about to deal with higher level pitching in the future. He has projectable power which could get up to average, though again, there are mixed views on how likely he is to reach that upside, particularly in-game.
Carlson’s defense is his calling card currently. He has the total package defensively, with Keith Law calling him a “wizard on defense,” and BA saying he has Gold Glove potential at the position. He has a 70 arm, and would also be a legitimate pro prospect as a pitcher, though he has apparently indicated he wants to be a position player, not a pitcher, going forward. He’s not real fast, though MLB Pipeline notes that his speed has improved over the past year.
Baseball America has Carlson at #9 on their top 500 list. MLB Pipeline’s draft rankings have Carlson at 7. Keith Law’s top 100 list has Carlson at #11. Kiley McDaniel’s top 150 list has Carlson at #6. Fangraphs has Carlson at #6 on their board. Baseball Prospectus has Carlson at #7 on their top 50 list.
Baseball America’s BA’s June 30 mock draft has Carlson going to the Marlins at #7. BA’s July 9 mock draft also has Carlson going #7 to Miami, though he’s talked about as options for the Pirates at #6, the White Sox at #10 and the Rangers at #12. Keith Law’s latest mock draft has Carlson going to the Jays at #8, also mentioning him as a possibility at #7. Kiley McDaniel’s mock draft from June 18 has Carlson mentioned as possibilities for the teams picking 5th through 9th before being mocked to the ChiSox at #10. The Callis/Mayo combined mock draft from June 19 has Carlson going to the Marlins at #7. Jonathan Mayo’s June 26 mock draft has Carlson going to the Pirates at #6. Jim Callis’s July 3 mock draft slots Carlson at #9 to the Reds.
Carlson doesn’t last past #10 in any of the recent mock drafts, so its reasonable to wonder why I bothered writing him up. And yes, Carlson is most likely gone when the Rangers pick at #12.
That said, Carlson is generally expected to go in the 6-10 range, and given the inherent uncertainty regarding the MLB draft and the fact that there’s not a big amount of separate in the guys expected to go between 6 and 20 or so, Carlson could end up being on the board when Texas picks. Reading the write-ups, one gets the sense that the Rangers’ ideal scenario would be either Carlson or Jojo Parker dropping to them at #12, and if one of them is on the board, I’d expect that player to be the pick.
Previously: