Jon Gray’s season was all but officially ended last week by a diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome, and a subsequent placement on the Rangers’ 15-day injured list. TOS surgery would keep Gray sidelined for a big chunk of the 2026 season and perhaps the entirety of next year, and Gray would be 35 on Opening Day 2027. The idea of hanging up his glove entirely has apparently at least crossed Gray’s mind, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Gray “responded mostly with a shrug” when asked by reporters Friday if he was going to keep playing beyond this season.
When asked about pitching again in 2025, Gray said “I don’t have any idea about the future. I guess there is always hope. But it’s hard to have hope with everything that’s happened. It’s just become a really frustrating pattern.” That said, Gray noted that he had some interest in looking to “go out with a good feeling” rather than be somewhat forced out of baseball due to injury.
Given that a TOS surgery hasn’t even been officially planned yet, it is probably too soon to be reading too much into Gray’s immediate reaction, as his emotions are (understandably) raw about this latest major setback to his career. There is no rush for him to make any big decision about his playing career, and naturally Gray might want to take his time in considering whether or not to walk away from the game entirely.
This major injury adds another layer, however, to what was already looking like a crossroads of an offseason for the right-hander. Gray is in the final season of his four-year, $56MM contract, and he has pitched only 14 innings this season due to a broken wrist suffered during Spring Training, and then this most recent IL placement. The Rangers have used Gray out of the bullpen rather than as a starter, and he has struggled to a 7.71 ERA over his six appearances.
The sample size is small enough that it’s hard to make any clear observations from Gray’s 2025 performance, and five homers allowed over his 14 innings obviously skewed his numbers to some extent. It still clearly wasn’t the type of platform year Gray was hoping for heading into free agency, and if healthy, he would’ve likely been looking at a one-year guarantee from a team hoping he could bounce back. The TOS surgery could make a two-year deal a possibility, with a minimal salary in the first year and a larger commitment for 2027 when Gray is presumably healthy, yet the overall size of that contract doesn’t figure to be too pricey considering the shaky track record of pitchers returning in good form after thoracic outlet syndrome.
Injuries have been a frequent concern for Gray, as a variety of issues (foot problems, an MCL strain, an oblique strain, blisters, shoulder inflammation, a forearm strain, multiple groin strains in 2024, and his fractured wrist) have led to IL stints over the course of his 11 Major League seasons. Despite these health woes and the fact that he spent his first seven seasons pitching in the thin air with the Rockies, Gray has a respectable 4.49 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate over 1230 2/3 career innings.
Chosen third overall by Colorado in the 2013 draft, Gray didn’t quite reach the star level associated with such lofty draft status, but he has been a solid rotation member over his career with some flashes of being a frontline starter. If this is indeed it for Gray, he can look back with pride on a long career that included a World Series ring with Texas in 2023. (Gray contributed to that title with a 1.59 ERA over 5 2/3 relief innings during the Rangers’ postseason run.)
Grant suggested two other factors that might impact any of Gray’s retirement plans. Gray has over 10 years of MLB service time — officially crossing that threshold earlier this season — and therefore is already qualified for a full pension. There is also the widespread expectation that MLB will be facing a work stoppage when the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so if Gray does indeed miss next year while rehabbing, a return to the field could be even further delayed by a lockout.