NORTH TEXAS (CBSDFW.COM) – A cold front came through the Metroplex this morning, sweeping away the clouds and lowering the humidity. Should be a very pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid-80s. Wonderful evening in store for us, the low dewpoints will make for a great night to be outside.
All weather concerns are bunched around late tomorrow. Sunday starts with clouds, we’ll see thunderstorms erupt by afternoon as a warm front moves across us heading north. The coverage and the risk of severe weather is small; perhaps 30% coverage in the afternoon with some gusty winds.
The real show will start well to our west in the Panhandle of Texas. Severe weather is expected to erupt across the High Plains by Sunday afternoon:
And then the big question: will these storms hold together and still be severe by the time they reach North Texas? Here are four different short range, high resolution, models showing the various solutions:
So one model (NAM) has nothing at all. The HRRR and GRAF show storms with similar solutions, past midnight and strong or severe storms. The HRRR is all north of Metroplex while the GRAF shows a near direct hit. The BAM model is the most worrisome of them all, showing the severe weather hitting the Metroplex head on and much earlier, around 11pm.
Which one is right? Anyone of them. We must wait to see where the storms form tomorrow afternoon and if they’ll roll into central Oklahoma instead of North Texas.
If we DO get these storms inside (or just north) of the Metroplex you can expect a modest hail threat but certainly strong or damaging winds and isolated flooding.
Tomorrow is the first of May and brings a significant weather pattern shift. We’ll be in the crosshairs of several impulses coming across the southern jet stream. Waves of strong or severe weather should be expected this work week. The SPC has at least part of North Texas under a slight risk for three days in a row:
All these storms (in the forecast all the way in to Friday) should bring some much-appreciated rain to north Texas, helping alleviate what as been a spell of dry weather (a La Nina fall/winter/spring) since last September.