Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Dallas Stars. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Dallas Stars
Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they come into this game after their four-game winning streak was snapped in their last game. When they’ve been successful, it’s been because of their offence. On their four-game winning streak, they scored three or more goals in all of them. They rank 13th in the league in goals-per-game with 3.21. Bo Horvat continues to lead the way with 23 points in 19 games. He had an eight-game point streak broken last time out. Emil Heineman continues to step up and provide offence for the Islanders. He has a three-game goal streak going after scoring in the previous game. His production has been a nice surprise. He is second on the team in goals behind Horvat. However, to get the most out of this forward group, they have to improve the power play, that unit ranks 27th in the league at a 15.6% conversion rate.
Defensively, the Islanders have shown slight improvement. On their four-game winning streak, they allowed two goals or fewer in three of those contests. However, after allowing four goals in the last game, they have moved down to 20th in goals-against-per-game with 3.16. One area that has helped them improve has been penalty kill, which ranks 11th in the league at an 81.5% kill rate.
They Do Have a Star Rookie
Moreover, Matthew Schaefer continues to impress. He is earning trust as his time on ice has increased dramatically as the season goes on. Schaefer plays top pairing, power play and penalty kill time. He also leads all NHL defencemen in goals (seven) this season.
Ilya Sorokin has started to turn a corner as well, with the play in front of him improving. We expect him to start tonight, and he has stabilized his play recently. He has only allowed 12 goals over his last six appearances. He had a three-game winning streak come to an end last time out, so he will look to start a new one. On the season, he is 6-5-2 with an .898 save percentage.
The Stars Story
The Stars come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won their last five games in a row. A big reason has been the offensive play from their forwards. In their last seven games, they have scored four or more goals in five of those. They rank eighth in goals per game with 3.26. Their top six is loaded with star power. Led by top liner Mikko Rantanen, he has 26 points in 19 games. That includes five multi-point performances in November. On the second line is Jason Robertson, who is second on the team with 23 points in 19 games. Coming off a natural hat trick in the last game, and has six goals and four assists over his last four games. He is the hottest scorer in the league at this moment.
The Stars’ offence gets a lot of credit. Meanwhile, their defence is also playing well. On the five-game winning streak, they have allowed two goals or fewer in four of them. That has them ranked ninth in goals against as well, with just 2.79 per game. They do a great job at limiting their opponents’ chances to score by allowing the third fewest high-danger shots against with just 32. It helps to have a strong goalie tandem as well. Starter Jake Oettinger is one of the league’s best; he is 8-3-2 with a .900 save percentage. Veteran backup Casey DeSmith is no slouch either. He is 4-1-1 with a .913 save percentage. However, neither goalie has been announced, but we’d assume it’s Oettinger who hasn’t played since Saturday. He would be looking to get his fourth straight win.
Prediction
When looking at this game, the Stars have the advantages all over the ice. Their offence, defence and goaltending are better than the Islanders. Dallas has a top-10 offence, defence and one of the league’s better goalies. Both teams are playing well, but the Stars are playing that much better. Factor in that Dallas hasn’t played since Saturday, so they are rested and have home ice advantage. These factors should lead to Dallas extending their win streak to six games.
Prediction: Stars win 4-2
Prop Bet
According to the popular sportsbooks, the Stars are the rightful favourites. We like their money line at -172. The over/under is set at 5.5. Given both teams’ ability to score the puck, we like the over at -140. As far as an anytime goal scorer, for the Islanders, take Emil Heineman at +320. He has a three-game goal streak going, so he will look to stay hot. For the Stars, take Jason Robertson at +150. After a natural hat trick, he will try to continue his recent play and score another in this one.
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