Late last night, the biggest domino yet to fall at the deadline saw movement. Multiple reports indicate the Hurricanes and Stars have agreed on the framework of a deal to send star winger Mikko Rantanen to Dallas just weeks after Carolina paid a premium to acquire him from the Avalanche, but it’s contingent on Rantanen and the Stars being in agreement on an extension to keep the pending UFA around past this season.
Progress on that front is minimal, significantly limiting the likelihood of the trade getting across the finish line. Darren Dreger of TSN reports the Stars have offered Rantanen a long-term deal worth upward of $12MM per season, but that’s “well short” of the player’s ask.
The Hurricanes’ efforts to extend Rantanen were similarly unproductive, sparking intense trade discussion this week to avoid losing him for nothing this summer. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet said last month they’d submitted an eight-year offer to Rantanen with a total value of at least $100MM, translating to an AAV of at least $12.5MM, but that he was unwilling to commit to the Carolina market.
Financials may not have been the principal issue with the Canes’ offer, but it does appear to be the issue with Dallas. Trade talks likely wouldn’t have advanced this far if Rantanen was generally disinterested in an extension with the Stars, so there’s presumably a price point at which Dallas can get this done without vastly overpaying on his market value. Whether the Stars, who need to conserve space for an extension for pending RFA Wyatt Johnston and potentially retaining captain Jamie Benn past this year, are willing to go much higher than their initial offer remains to be seen. Leading scorer Matt Duchene is also a pending UFA.
Dallas currently has $25.8MM in projected cap space for 2025-26 with nine open roster spots, per PuckPedia. An extension for Rantanen in the $13MM range annually, which is looking more like his demand, would leave the Stars with around $12.5MM in space for eight players, with Johnston likely to take at least 65-70% of that on his own. It’s not a feasible pickup for the Stars unless they’re willing to make some tough decisions about letting core pieces reach the open market or trading players with term off their roster.
Even if a Rantanen deal falls through, it’s hard to imagine Dallas is done for the day. They’ve still got holes at right defense that need filling, currently rolling out a trio of Cody Ceci, Mathew Dumba, and Ilya Lyubushkin while Miro Heiskanen is sidelined. For now, they’ve got a good deal of cap flexibility to accomplish it with Tyler Seguin and Nils Lundkvist on LTIR, both of whom are either likely or confirmed to be done for the regular season.