The Edmonton Oilers are the last remaining Canadian team in the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. With fellow contenders, the Winnipeg Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs eliminated in their respective second-round series, it’s up to the Oilers to carry the torch for teams from North of the 49. As they embark on their Western Conference Final matchup with the Dallas Stars, just what are the odds a Canadian team (the Oilers) brings home Lord Stanley’s Holy Grail in 2025? Let’s check it out.
The Edmonton Oilers Odds at the 2025 Stanley Cup
It has to happen, right? A Canadian team hoist the Stanley Cup. It hasn’t happened since 1993 when Patrick Roy led the Montreal Canadiens to glory. In that previous era, from 1956 through to 1993, Canadian-based NHL teams captured 27 cups to the USA’s 11. So, yes, at the time, American teams were due for a correction. But it has gotten a little excessive, no?
If you consider the probabilities, it is extremely unlucky a Canadian team hasn’t won a cup since ’93. We took a quick back of the napkin calculation using theory of taking the product of geometric distributed probabilities. If 21 ping pong balls were in the lotto machine, it would be just a little worse odds picking the first four balls correctly than a Canadian team not having hoisted the cup in all those years.
Canadian Teams as Stanley Cup Finalists Since 1993
- Vancouver – 94
- Calgary – 04
- Edmonton – 06
- Ottawa – 07
- Vancouver – 11
- Montreal – 21
- Edmonton – 24
Just even think about the amount of times a Canadian team has qualified for the Stanley Cup Final. There has been 30 Stanley Cup Finals played since 1993, so 60 teams have played in them. That works out to about 11.7% of the teams that have played in the final being Canadian. Right now, with seven of the 32 teams Canadian, that’s almost 22% of the teams. Yes, the percentage of Canadian teams has varied, from six of 30 (20%), to eight of 26 (30.8%), but always around that amount. Therefore, it is fair to conclude that Canadian teams have been underrepresented in the finals over those years.
So, forget about all that for now. What are the chances that the Edmonton Oilers defy the odds in 2025 and begin their own correction factor? Even analyzing the probability for the Oilers to win the cup, they are only at 18.1%. It seems that the Eastern Conference is favoured to prevail, somewhere around 57-to-43. According to the numbers, the Oilers are already fighting an uphill battle. But maybe, just maybe, it’s their time. It’s Canada’s time.
Think About this Year’s Edmonton Oilers
The oddsmakers are clearly not considering that the Oilers possess a secret weapon in Connor McDavid. He was the fourth-fastest, just back in November in fact, to achieve 1000 career regular season points. They also have two in the top-ten all-time points-per-game in the playoffs. However, number seven on the list, Mikko Rantanen might have something to say about that. Leon Draisaitl, of course, being the second Oiler on the list behind McDavid. Heck, even Evan Bouchard and his 1.094 PPG, has him 19th on the all-time list. (Only behind Bobby Orr for defencemen).
The Oilers also have the benefit of experience, having beat Dallas last year. Last year, the two teams met in the Western Conference Final and the Oilers prevailed in six games. In contrast, with that logic, it could work against them as well. They played the Florida Panthers in the final and lost to them, which is a scenario that could still play out this time around, too.
We’ve heard it before, you can throw stats, momentum, whatever you want, throw it out the window. This is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The hardest trophy to win in sport. The players create their own destiny. Furthermore, they’re the ones that determine the odds, not the Edmonton Oilers, not the prediction experts. It’s the players. So, let’s sit back and enjoy the ride the rest of the way. And for Canadian hockey fans of the game, whether you cheer for Ottawa, or heck even Colorado, we are all rooting for Canada’s last remaining bid, the Edmonton Oilers.
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Main Photo Credit: Perry Nelson – Imagn Images
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